This week, four things happened in the stablecoin space. Put together, the direction is very clear.

First: the U.S. Federal Reserve put two companion proposals for the GENIUS Act on the table—one covers reserves, requiring that high-liquidity assets such as short-term U.S. Treasuries be backed in full, and also requiring capital; the other covers access, specifying how banks should apply to issue stablecoins. Issuance is increasingly turning into a business that requires licenses and capital.

Second: for the first time, seven British banks used tokenized deposits to transfer money to each other—real customers and real repayments. This money is still a bank liability, and deposit protection remains unchanged. The banks’ stance is very clear: they do not intend to give up all payment to stablecoins.

The third thing: Binance bought $100 million worth of Circle stock and renewed its cooperation on USDC for another five years, paying incentive fees monthly based on holdings. Why is distribution so valuable? In the second quarter, Circle generated $701 million in revenue, and it paid $412 million just in distribution costs.

The fourth thing: Stablecoin supply on Solana hit a new high of $17.3 billion, ranking after Ethereum ($145.9 billion) and TRON ($94.1 billion).

Connect the four things together:

The issuer side is getting “heavier.” Reserves, capital, licenses—the barriers are getting higher and higher. Profit is becoming more and more like a public utility: you earn interest on U.S. Treasuries, and you compete on scale and compliance.

The distributor side is getting “more expensive.” Whoever has users and trading scenarios can take a share of the interest cake from the issuer. Nearly 60% of Circle’s revenue goes to distribution channels—this ratio is the answer by itself.

What this means for ordinary users: behind the stablecoins you hold, the biggest chunk of the interest doesn’t go to you—it goes to the issuer and the channels in between. That’s why there are more and more “hold to earn” products—because channels are using interest to win over users.

My view: over the coming year, the competition in stablecoins won’t be about who can issue, but about who can distribute. The bargaining power of exchanges, wallets, and payment companies will continue to rise.

When does this view fail: if U.S. Treasury yields drop sharply and the interest “cake” gets smaller, the scramble for distribution will visibly cool off.