September 22nd.
Glassnode’s “altcoin cycle” indicator, with the 7-day moving average surging to 81.25.
75 is the threshold. 81.25 is the announcement.
This is the first time since January that this indicator has flipped from “Bitcoin season” to “altcoin season.”
Altcoin total market cap has shot up to $1.19 trillion, up 33% from August 19.
From September 18 to 22, all 35 major non-BTC trading pairs tracked by Bitfinex rose—none fell.
The median gain was 12%, while BTC over the same period rose only 6.6%.
AVAX is up 38%, BCH up 35%, and SUI and HBAR each up about 25%.
Does it smell like a bull market, right?
Don’t rush.
Glassnode’s latest data shows: rotation signals are spiking, but the breadth of returns is falling sharply.
Put it in plain language: fewer and fewer coins are going up, and the upside is getting increasingly concentrated in just a handful.
A real altcoin season is large-cap up, mid-cap up, and different sectors rising with money spreading evenly.
What we have now is an altcoin season where only a few coins explode higher, while the rest just sit there.
This isn’t an altcoin season—it’s the altcoin version of “an 80/20 split.”
Bitfinex says it plainly in its report: to confirm a truly real altcoin season, you need to see whether altcoins can hold up when BTC experiences its first clear round of noticeable decline.
Two scenarios:
Scenario A: BTC falls 3%–4%, while altcoins hold up relatively.
→ Real spot demand is stepping in, not pushed by leverage. There’s a foundation for altcoin season.
Scenario B: Altcoins’ average drawdown widens again to more than 1.4 times BTC.
→ This means the prior rally was all driven by leverage. Spot didn’t really come in.
In early September, Bitfinex pointed out: open interest in altcoin perpetual futures surpassed Bitcoin for the first time.
Historically, when this happens, a market pullback often follows.
The higher the leverage piled up, the more it hurts when things start falling.
Bitcoin dominance drops from 59.2% to 56.5%.
The selloff is indeed noticeable—money is leaking out toward altcoins.
But note—dominance is only down 2 percentage points, not in a crash.
That suggests the outflow is exploratory, not a full-on transfer.
The signal is flashing, but a signal isn’t confirmation.
Real altcoin season isn’t when BTC is rising and altcoins rise too.
It’s when BTC is falling and altcoins don’t.
Glassnode’s “altcoin cycle” indicator, with the 7-day moving average surging to 81.25.
75 is the threshold. 81.25 is the announcement.
This is the first time since January that this indicator has flipped from “Bitcoin season” to “altcoin season.”
Altcoin total market cap has shot up to $1.19 trillion, up 33% from August 19.
From September 18 to 22, all 35 major non-BTC trading pairs tracked by Bitfinex rose—none fell.
The median gain was 12%, while BTC over the same period rose only 6.6%.
AVAX is up 38%, BCH up 35%, and SUI and HBAR each up about 25%.
Does it smell like a bull market, right?
Don’t rush.
Glassnode’s latest data shows: rotation signals are spiking, but the breadth of returns is falling sharply.
Put it in plain language: fewer and fewer coins are going up, and the upside is getting increasingly concentrated in just a handful.
A real altcoin season is large-cap up, mid-cap up, and different sectors rising with money spreading evenly.
What we have now is an altcoin season where only a few coins explode higher, while the rest just sit there.
This isn’t an altcoin season—it’s the altcoin version of “an 80/20 split.”
Bitfinex says it plainly in its report: to confirm a truly real altcoin season, you need to see whether altcoins can hold up when BTC experiences its first clear round of noticeable decline.
Two scenarios:
Scenario A: BTC falls 3%–4%, while altcoins hold up relatively.
→ Real spot demand is stepping in, not pushed by leverage. There’s a foundation for altcoin season.
Scenario B: Altcoins’ average drawdown widens again to more than 1.4 times BTC.
→ This means the prior rally was all driven by leverage. Spot didn’t really come in.
In early September, Bitfinex pointed out: open interest in altcoin perpetual futures surpassed Bitcoin for the first time.
Historically, when this happens, a market pullback often follows.
The higher the leverage piled up, the more it hurts when things start falling.
Bitcoin dominance drops from 59.2% to 56.5%.
The selloff is indeed noticeable—money is leaking out toward altcoins.
But note—dominance is only down 2 percentage points, not in a crash.
That suggests the outflow is exploratory, not a full-on transfer.
The signal is flashing, but a signal isn’t confirmation.
Real altcoin season isn’t when BTC is rising and altcoins rise too.
It’s when BTC is falling and altcoins don’t.
