A three-year ETH whale holds; in one week it transferred 112,000 ETH to Bitfinex. The ETH price is currently undergoing a stress test.

A three-year ETH whale has been steadily transferring ETH to Bitfinex over the past week, with a cumulative size of about 112,000 ETH—equivalent to roughly $300 million—and it has generated a profit of about $72.83 million. The latest on-chain monitoring shows that on September 27, the address transferred out about 30,800 ETH again, indicating that profit-taking is still ongoing.

But what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t how much the whale has made, but a more direct question:

After the whale keeps moving ETH into exchanges, can the price actually hold up?

From the recent price trend, this relationship has started to become clear.

On September 21, ETH briefly rose to about $2,806, then fell continuously. On September 23, the low touched about $2,636. By September 25, the ETH price on Bitfinex was still around $2,690. In other words, after ETH’s push toward $2,800, the market quickly showed clear profit-taking and pullback.

This does not prove that “whale transfers directly cause the price to fall,” because deposits to exchanges do not equal immediate selling.

But from the market structure, whale inflow to the exchange plus a pullback appearing at high levels at least indicates there is supply above that the market needs to digest.

You can focus on three relationships:

First, the whale continues moving coins, yet ETH doesn’t drop.

If afterward there are still large amounts of ETH transferring into Bitfinex, but ETH can remain stable around $2,700—and even breaks back above $2,800—this means market buy orders are continuously absorbing this potential sell pressure.

In this case, the whale transfers themselves may not necessarily be a negative; instead, they can be understood as a stress test of the market’s ability to absorb.

Second, the whale continues to move coins; ETH repeatedly fails to break higher.

If ETH repeatedly tries to challenge the $2,800 area and still can’t hold, while large amounts of ETH continue to enter exchanges on-chain, then you need to be alert that long-term holders may keep realizing profits.

At this point, “whale transfers” and “lackluster price gains” are forming a resonance, and the market impact of supply pressure will be amplified noticeably.

Third, the increase in whale transfers coincides with key support being broken.

This is the combination that is more worth being cautious about.

Recently, ETH found support around $2,600, and the low on September 23 was already close to $2,635. If afterward large amounts of ETH continue flowing into exchanges while the price effectively breaks below $2,600, then the market may further interpret these on-chain transfers as a signal of active position reduction.

So, to determine whether the whale’s transfer is truly a “negative” signal or simply a reshuffling of assets, you can’t look only at the transfer amount. You need to consider on-chain fund flows together with the price trend.

In short:

Whale inflow ↑ + ETH rises → Strong market absorption

Whale inflow ↑ + ETH trading sideways → The market is digesting sell pressure

Whale inflow ↑ + ETH falls → Selling pressure is being realized

This is also the most worth paying attention to part of these 112,000 ETH.

Next, more important than “the whale profited $72.83 million” is whether the remaining ETH keeps transferring to exchanges, and whether ETH can regain and hold above $2,800.

If the whale continues to cash out, while ETH is still able to keep setting new highs, it suggests the market is using newly added capital to absorb older holdings; if the whale keeps transferring while the price keeps weakening, then this batch of long-term positions could become an important source of ETH supply for short-term trading activity.