🔥 ORCL plunges 60% in one year! With $66.4B RPO, even that can’t stop the pullback—what exactly is the market trading in the AI sector?

Trading to watch: $ORCL $BTC $TAO


Oracle (ORCL) closed on September 26 at $137.10. If we calculate from the all-time high of $345.72 set on September 10, 2025, the maximum drawdown is about 60.34%.

Strangely, Oracle’s AI business hasn’t fallen apart:
Q1 revenue was $19.3B, up 30% year-over-year; cloud infrastructure revenue was $7.4B, up 121%; RPO reached $66.4B, and the company delivered more than 300,000 GPUs.

So why is the stock down so much?
I think the market is no longer trading the question of whether there is demand for AI—it’s trading this instead:
When will AI orders truly turn into cash flow and profits?

📊 I. AI demand is real, but the investment is huge

Oracle’s operating cash flow this quarter was about $23.1B, but capital expenditures were $28.5B. Free cash flow was roughly -$5.4B.
At the same time, the company raised about $19.9B through an ATM program.

This suggests the AI cloud battle is entering a phase of “heavy reinvestment.” There are plenty of orders, but that doesn’t mean profits will show up immediately.

⚠️ II. What does this mean for AI in crypto?

I won’t conclude the AI track is over just because ORCL is down 60%. But it at least reminds us:

If a tech giant with real customers, real revenue, and $66.4B in RPO starts facing market tests of capital expenditures and cash flow, then AI tokens in crypto—especially those with high FDV but lacking real protocol revenue—also need to face equally brutal valuation scrutiny.

For the future of AI/DePIN, I care more about: real users, real compute demand, and real protocol revenue.
Not just looking at the two words “AI.”

💡 III. My trading thesis

The long-term AI trend hasn’t ended, but the market may be shifting from “telling stories” to “looking for realization.”
So I’ll focus on:

1. ORCL: whether AI cloud revenue can keep growing at a high speed, and when capex will translate into cash flow;
2. Crypto AI: whether the project truly has a real revenue loop;
3. BTC: whether, after macro liquidity is drained, funds continue to concentrate in large-cap defensive assets.

🔥 My core view

AI isn’t over, but the pure AI narrative is undergoing cash-flow validation.