The short pin of $BTC on Deribit already changes face.
Facts (public Deribit API, read on 27/09 UTC):
• Expiry 27SEP26 (settlement ~08:00 UTC): OI ≈ 4,462 BTC, call-heavy skew (put/call ≈ 0.49), max pain approx. ≈ $84,500. Spot ≈ $84,300, i.e. −0.3% below this level.
• Next weekly 2OCT26: OI already ≈ 25,835 BTC (≈ 6× larger), put-heavy skew (put/call ≈ 1.22), max pain approx. ≈ $83,000 (≈ +1.6% below spot).
Interpretation (not advice): as long as the short-dated holds the price near 84.5k, the pin masks the true imbalance. Once 27SEP is settled, the next liquid book is already biased puts with a lower max pain. Dealer hedging flows can then re-anchor the useful zone around ~83k, unless spot breaks clearly above the big call strikes (88k on 2OCT).
Scenarios:
1) Spot holds 84k–84.5k after settlement → calm digestion; the 2OCT skew remains more of a restraint than an immediate magnet
2) Pullback to 83k–83.5k → alignment with 2OCT max pain and the big puts (78k–82k)
3) Clean break above 85k–86k → the put-heavy bias hurts and forces a catch-up of hedges
Are you looking more at the pin up to 08:00 UTC, or already the 2OCT book?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Options #Crypto
Facts (public Deribit API, read on 27/09 UTC):
• Expiry 27SEP26 (settlement ~08:00 UTC): OI ≈ 4,462 BTC, call-heavy skew (put/call ≈ 0.49), max pain approx. ≈ $84,500. Spot ≈ $84,300, i.e. −0.3% below this level.
• Next weekly 2OCT26: OI already ≈ 25,835 BTC (≈ 6× larger), put-heavy skew (put/call ≈ 1.22), max pain approx. ≈ $83,000 (≈ +1.6% below spot).
Interpretation (not advice): as long as the short-dated holds the price near 84.5k, the pin masks the true imbalance. Once 27SEP is settled, the next liquid book is already biased puts with a lower max pain. Dealer hedging flows can then re-anchor the useful zone around ~83k, unless spot breaks clearly above the big call strikes (88k on 2OCT).
Scenarios:
1) Spot holds 84k–84.5k after settlement → calm digestion; the 2OCT skew remains more of a restraint than an immediate magnet
2) Pullback to 83k–83.5k → alignment with 2OCT max pain and the big puts (78k–82k)
3) Clean break above 85k–86k → the put-heavy bias hurts and forces a catch-up of hedges
Are you looking more at the pin up to 08:00 UTC, or already the 2OCT book?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #Options #Crypto
