Many people are watching the weekend amplitude of less than 1%. What I care about more is how much the leverage positions have been liquidated.
Binance BTC futures open interest has fallen from the Sept 22 peak of about 110,600 BTC to roughly 94,500 BTC now. In a week, it’s been cut by 14.5%. The notional value has also dropped from about $8.8 billion to around $8.0 billion. What about the price? It’s still been ranging around 84,000 and hasn’t collapsed along with the positions. This suggests that what’s been hammered out over the past few days is mainly leveraged long/short activity—not a collective retreat in spot.
The funding rate tells the story even more clearly. In the past 12 settlement cycles, the absolute value was almost entirely within 0.005%. Even the most recent one was only 0.0048% per 8 hours, annualized at just a bit over 5%. The basis is also still slightly in backwardation by a few bps. Put into plain words: longs are unwilling to pay to go long, and shorts aren’t willing to pay to go short—both sides are waiting.
The 4-hour Bollinger Band width is only 1.26% now. The median over the past 60 candles was about 7.6%—this is typical volatility squeeze. The dense trading area over the last 30 days is being pinned around 84,000. There’s also clear overhead supply/pending sell pressure near 85,000.
My view is that the market looks cleaner than last week, but the direction still hasn’t been chosen. What really matters is a volume-backed breakout above 85,000, or a breakdown below 83,000—then we can decide whether it’s worth catching a bit. In this kind of weekend compression, any catalyst around PCE and Nonfarm Payrolls next week could easily blow the band width back out. Do you think it will squeeze upward first, or wash downward first?
$BTC $ETH #BTC #合约持仓 # Funding rate
Binance BTC futures open interest has fallen from the Sept 22 peak of about 110,600 BTC to roughly 94,500 BTC now. In a week, it’s been cut by 14.5%. The notional value has also dropped from about $8.8 billion to around $8.0 billion. What about the price? It’s still been ranging around 84,000 and hasn’t collapsed along with the positions. This suggests that what’s been hammered out over the past few days is mainly leveraged long/short activity—not a collective retreat in spot.
The funding rate tells the story even more clearly. In the past 12 settlement cycles, the absolute value was almost entirely within 0.005%. Even the most recent one was only 0.0048% per 8 hours, annualized at just a bit over 5%. The basis is also still slightly in backwardation by a few bps. Put into plain words: longs are unwilling to pay to go long, and shorts aren’t willing to pay to go short—both sides are waiting.
The 4-hour Bollinger Band width is only 1.26% now. The median over the past 60 candles was about 7.6%—this is typical volatility squeeze. The dense trading area over the last 30 days is being pinned around 84,000. There’s also clear overhead supply/pending sell pressure near 85,000.
My view is that the market looks cleaner than last week, but the direction still hasn’t been chosen. What really matters is a volume-backed breakout above 85,000, or a breakdown below 83,000—then we can decide whether it’s worth catching a bit. In this kind of weekend compression, any catalyst around PCE and Nonfarm Payrolls next week could easily blow the band width back out. Do you think it will squeeze upward first, or wash downward first?
$BTC $ETH #BTC #合约持仓 # Funding rate
