The price of $AAVE is still at $154, but the confirmation of the move’s volume has been lost. On September 26, $390M of trading pushed the price to $153; today it’s only $257M. The position hasn’t changed, but the momentum has withdrawn. A 30-day +20.97% move looks strong on the surface, yet over the past year it’s -42.94%, and it’s still 76.65% below the ATH. Structurally, it hasn’t broken out of the downtrend cycle.
What I care about more is how much of this rally is driven by $AAVE ’s own alpha. If it’s only moving with the broader market as Beta, then the pile of profit above $154 is short-term gains, not new consensus. A sideways move on declining volume can be read as sell pressure being exhausted—or as buyers not stepping in. I lean toward the latter because the traded value hasn’t provided confirmation. Holders are currently waiting for a reason it won’t drop; sidelined traders are waiting for a volume-backed breakout signal.
If the traded value over the next two days climbs back above $350M and breaks $156, that would look like a shakeout. If it pulls back but $145 doesn’t break and the volume is sluggish, it could also be accumulation. Which variable do you think is most likely to overturn this view—the volume of $AAVE returning first, or a change in on-chain lending activity?
What I care about more is how much of this rally is driven by $AAVE ’s own alpha. If it’s only moving with the broader market as Beta, then the pile of profit above $154 is short-term gains, not new consensus. A sideways move on declining volume can be read as sell pressure being exhausted—or as buyers not stepping in. I lean toward the latter because the traded value hasn’t provided confirmation. Holders are currently waiting for a reason it won’t drop; sidelined traders are waiting for a volume-backed breakout signal.
If the traded value over the next two days climbs back above $350M and breaks $156, that would look like a shakeout. If it pulls back but $145 doesn’t break and the volume is sluggish, it could also be accumulation. Which variable do you think is most likely to overturn this view—the volume of $AAVE returning first, or a change in on-chain lending activity?