I have an unverified intuition in my head: $ETH this round looks more like a repair climbing out of oversold conditions rather than the starting point of a new cycle. It needs to be proven with data, and so far the market display has only given half the answer.
In fact, over 30 days it has moved out of the bottom and started lifting—from $2390 to $2775, about 16% upside. The $27B surge in volume on September 22 also gave the market some kind of signal. But on the other hand, the 1Y performance is still -33.2%, and it remains 45.86% below ATH. That means, for now, this is just a repair, not a revaluation. Crossing above $2680 doesn’t count as “holding”—the real point of divergence is volume. After the $27B, in the past couple of days it fell back to volume levels around $14B and $5.7B again. This kind of gap could be normal digestion after a surge, or it could be a turnover trap after a spike.
What I care about more is whether $ETH can complete a pullback above $2500–2550 without losing momentum. If next week’s volume continues to shrink and price breaks back below $2500, then my earlier intuition would be wrong—at most this would only count as a rebound. Conversely, if after the pullback it puts volume back on and breaks through $2775 again, only then would I seriously consider that it’s undergoing a turnover-based revaluation.
So there’s no rush to take sides with this judgment. You can verify it using the indicators you trust more. For example, when you usually assess whether $ETH is strong or weak, do you look at the absolute value of the 24h trading volume, or do you focus on its weekly structure?
In fact, over 30 days it has moved out of the bottom and started lifting—from $2390 to $2775, about 16% upside. The $27B surge in volume on September 22 also gave the market some kind of signal. But on the other hand, the 1Y performance is still -33.2%, and it remains 45.86% below ATH. That means, for now, this is just a repair, not a revaluation. Crossing above $2680 doesn’t count as “holding”—the real point of divergence is volume. After the $27B, in the past couple of days it fell back to volume levels around $14B and $5.7B again. This kind of gap could be normal digestion after a surge, or it could be a turnover trap after a spike.
What I care about more is whether $ETH can complete a pullback above $2500–2550 without losing momentum. If next week’s volume continues to shrink and price breaks back below $2500, then my earlier intuition would be wrong—at most this would only count as a rebound. Conversely, if after the pullback it puts volume back on and breaks through $2775 again, only then would I seriously consider that it’s undergoing a turnover-based revaluation.
So there’s no rush to take sides with this judgment. You can verify it using the indicators you trust more. For example, when you usually assess whether $ETH is strong or weak, do you look at the absolute value of the 24h trading volume, or do you focus on its weekly structure?