Friends who watch markets late at night probably got spammed by the Middle East news.
Trump outright rejected Iran’s ceasefire plan to “reopen the Strait of Hormuz in 7 days.” The WSJ also reported that he plans to resume the bombing after the midterm elections in mid-November. Well, they didn’t even bother to pretend—then they renamed the strait “Trump Strait.” Honestly, this naming taste is second to none.
What does it mean for the market? The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen to single digits. A large share of global crude oil still moves through this route, adding fuel to the fire for oil prices and inflation. Meanwhile, over in Ukraine, they even took aim at Russia’s refineries—supply-side problems are stacking up.
But the reaction in $BTC is quite interesting: on one hand, risk assets are being suppressed by geopolitics; on the other hand, the narrative of rate cuts and more liquidity is still providing support. Also, Saudi crude exports have actually surged to a new high since the war began, suggesting real supply hasn’t collapsed. Don’t let clickbait headlines scare you into selling.
My take: in the short term, watch oil prices; in the mid term, focus on liquidity. With this kind of back-and-forth price action driven by the news cycle, it’s more comfortable to watch with a light position than to chase orders.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #地缘政治 #霍尔木兹海峡 #油价 #cryptocurrency
Trump outright rejected Iran’s ceasefire plan to “reopen the Strait of Hormuz in 7 days.” The WSJ also reported that he plans to resume the bombing after the midterm elections in mid-November. Well, they didn’t even bother to pretend—then they renamed the strait “Trump Strait.” Honestly, this naming taste is second to none.
What does it mean for the market? The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen to single digits. A large share of global crude oil still moves through this route, adding fuel to the fire for oil prices and inflation. Meanwhile, over in Ukraine, they even took aim at Russia’s refineries—supply-side problems are stacking up.
But the reaction in $BTC is quite interesting: on one hand, risk assets are being suppressed by geopolitics; on the other hand, the narrative of rate cuts and more liquidity is still providing support. Also, Saudi crude exports have actually surged to a new high since the war began, suggesting real supply hasn’t collapsed. Don’t let clickbait headlines scare you into selling.
My take: in the short term, watch oil prices; in the mid term, focus on liquidity. With this kind of back-and-forth price action driven by the news cycle, it’s more comfortable to watch with a light position than to chase orders.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #地缘政治 #霍尔木兹海峡 #油价 #cryptocurrency