On weekend at dawn, I took a quick look at the market. In the past 24 hours, $BTC has been oscillating between 83628 and 84337, with an amplitude of less than 1%. It’s even more regular than clocking in at work.
Looking back at this week, it’s actually been pretty exciting. On Monday, ETF inflows plus a squeeze on the short side pushed things all the way to around 87400. Then on Wednesday, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5%, and it quickly got smashed back to 84,000. After that, it basically churned around this level.
I personally care about two things. One is that this week the ETF saw net inflows of $2.39 billion—this is the biggest week of the year—but the daily amount fell from nearly $1 billion on Monday down to about $130 million by Friday. The buy-side momentum is clearly weakening. The other is that the 10-year US Treasury is already above 5.2%. In this kind of environment, BTC managing to hold sideways isn’t too bad.
Leverage has also been washed out quite a bit these days. A few major platforms saw contract positions drop by roughly $1.7 billion, and the order book looks cleaner than it did a while back.
My personal take: on the weekend it will most likely keep trading in a narrow range. The real direction probably won’t show up until next week—PCE on the 30th and Nonfarm Payrolls on October 2. There’s no small amount of overhead sell pressure in the 84,000 to 85,000 area. Until it holds above that zone, I won’t chase. If it breaks below 83,000, then I’ll consider whether to pick up some. $ETH is similar too—around 2690 there isn’t much movement.
#BTC #US Treasury yields
Looking back at this week, it’s actually been pretty exciting. On Monday, ETF inflows plus a squeeze on the short side pushed things all the way to around 87400. Then on Wednesday, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged above 5%, and it quickly got smashed back to 84,000. After that, it basically churned around this level.
I personally care about two things. One is that this week the ETF saw net inflows of $2.39 billion—this is the biggest week of the year—but the daily amount fell from nearly $1 billion on Monday down to about $130 million by Friday. The buy-side momentum is clearly weakening. The other is that the 10-year US Treasury is already above 5.2%. In this kind of environment, BTC managing to hold sideways isn’t too bad.
Leverage has also been washed out quite a bit these days. A few major platforms saw contract positions drop by roughly $1.7 billion, and the order book looks cleaner than it did a while back.
My personal take: on the weekend it will most likely keep trading in a narrow range. The real direction probably won’t show up until next week—PCE on the 30th and Nonfarm Payrolls on October 2. There’s no small amount of overhead sell pressure in the 84,000 to 85,000 area. Until it holds above that zone, I won’t chase. If it breaks below 83,000, then I’ll consider whether to pick up some. $ETH is similar too—around 2690 there isn’t much movement.
#BTC #US Treasury yields
