$BR This drop is a bit abrupt—on the 15m chart it straight-down hit -6.69%, and the volume surged to 2.68x, a typical high-volume breakdown.
What’s also interesting is that OI is falling along with it. On the 1h contracts are -2.16%, and the notional dropped by $3.0 million. This doesn’t look like new short positions opening and dumping; it feels more like longs are retreating on their own. Price broke below the lower edge of the last ~20 5m candles. Active trades are down by -2.8%, selling pressure isn’t particularly vicious, and the buy/sell ratio is still 0.95—but nobody’s stepping in.
24h turnover is $214 million, and the depth is sufficient. The OI abnormal percentile is 96.8%, the pool is #6, and the notional change in the pool is #3. Over several consecutive cycles it keeps shrinking. With this kind of structure, I generally don’t like catching falling knives—especially when deleveraging doesn’t seem finished yet.
Let’s watch first. Wait for OI to stabilize before making a move.
What’s also interesting is that OI is falling along with it. On the 1h contracts are -2.16%, and the notional dropped by $3.0 million. This doesn’t look like new short positions opening and dumping; it feels more like longs are retreating on their own. Price broke below the lower edge of the last ~20 5m candles. Active trades are down by -2.8%, selling pressure isn’t particularly vicious, and the buy/sell ratio is still 0.95—but nobody’s stepping in.
24h turnover is $214 million, and the depth is sufficient. The OI abnormal percentile is 96.8%, the pool is #6, and the notional change in the pool is #3. Over several consecutive cycles it keeps shrinking. With this kind of structure, I generally don’t like catching falling knives—especially when deleveraging doesn’t seem finished yet.
Let’s watch first. Wait for OI to stabilize before making a move.
