US 10-year yield is testing yearly SuperTrend resistance—and I've now yielded (pun intended) to the bull case. This is likely a structural uptrend. Years of artificially low yields were never sustainable given the wall of US debt that needs financing at real rates.
That said, first contact with 5–6% resistance could still produce a rejection—setting up a multi-year cooldown window and a more risk-on environment as the 10-year forms the right shoulder of this inverted head-and-shoulders before the next leg up.
Two things make me more confident we're near a local top:
1. Everyone's talking about yields at resistance—classic crowded-trade signal
2. The consensus view that stocks can't rally with higher yields has zero historical proof
This is a thesis, not a guarantee. But the setup is clean. Fingers and paws crossed for what comes next.
That said, first contact with 5–6% resistance could still produce a rejection—setting up a multi-year cooldown window and a more risk-on environment as the 10-year forms the right shoulder of this inverted head-and-shoulders before the next leg up.
Two things make me more confident we're near a local top:
1. Everyone's talking about yields at resistance—classic crowded-trade signal
2. The consensus view that stocks can't rally with higher yields has zero historical proof
This is a thesis, not a guarantee. But the setup is clean. Fingers and paws crossed for what comes next.
