Spot BTC is fighting like a group brawl, while the futures market is watching from the sidelines. This kind of divergence last appeared only once before—and the very next day, people were lining up to pay tuition.
As for the ETF side, they just handed in the biggest weekly inflow of 2026: net inflows of $2.39 billion. River’s take was very straightforward: this rally isn’t being chased by new buyers. It’s the circulating supply shrinking. Those who can buy have already bought; the remaining limit orders are waiting for a pullback. At this level, the ETF itself is basically catching the “floor” of the drop.
But the futures side tells a different story. ETH open interest stays pinned all day around 2.26 million, unmoving. The top-account long/short ratio is 1.56—around 60% are positioned long. Over the past six hours, the number of active buy orders has been even lower than sell orders. The price is rising on spot money; leverage money hasn’t even gotten on the train. If it breaks below 2563, the whole market has $692 million worth of long positions queued up to get liquidated—that’s the all-you-can-eat buffet for liquidation robots. Above that, around 2807, there’s another layer of short-position fuel stacked on top. Both sides have already set up cannons.
As for commodities, today’s most interesting part: Trump just rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying the U.S. side fully controls the strait. Oil is still moving normally. WTI rose 0.6% to 94.4. Brent didn’t give a clear signal, but on the futures side, short accounts make up 69%—the long/short account ratio is 0.456. Despite the rejection message landing, the oil price doesn’t move; it’s as if the market is already pricing as if a deal is done, and at this level, shorts are getting squeezed tighter and tighter.
Gold is up slightly—4287 up 0.4%. The long/short account ratio has fallen all the way from 4.06 to 3.95. Yes, it’s rising, but longs keep exiting—exactly the opposite of oil: one is everybody pitching in, the other is quietly calling it a day.
A new plan approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader was submitted, only to be rejected face-to-face again. This deadlock—what is it really waiting for? The next round of bids, or a bigger event? The answer may be right there this weekend.
#市场结构 #宏观分析 $BTC $ETH $XAU
As for the ETF side, they just handed in the biggest weekly inflow of 2026: net inflows of $2.39 billion. River’s take was very straightforward: this rally isn’t being chased by new buyers. It’s the circulating supply shrinking. Those who can buy have already bought; the remaining limit orders are waiting for a pullback. At this level, the ETF itself is basically catching the “floor” of the drop.
But the futures side tells a different story. ETH open interest stays pinned all day around 2.26 million, unmoving. The top-account long/short ratio is 1.56—around 60% are positioned long. Over the past six hours, the number of active buy orders has been even lower than sell orders. The price is rising on spot money; leverage money hasn’t even gotten on the train. If it breaks below 2563, the whole market has $692 million worth of long positions queued up to get liquidated—that’s the all-you-can-eat buffet for liquidation robots. Above that, around 2807, there’s another layer of short-position fuel stacked on top. Both sides have already set up cannons.
As for commodities, today’s most interesting part: Trump just rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying the U.S. side fully controls the strait. Oil is still moving normally. WTI rose 0.6% to 94.4. Brent didn’t give a clear signal, but on the futures side, short accounts make up 69%—the long/short account ratio is 0.456. Despite the rejection message landing, the oil price doesn’t move; it’s as if the market is already pricing as if a deal is done, and at this level, shorts are getting squeezed tighter and tighter.
Gold is up slightly—4287 up 0.4%. The long/short account ratio has fallen all the way from 4.06 to 3.95. Yes, it’s rising, but longs keep exiting—exactly the opposite of oil: one is everybody pitching in, the other is quietly calling it a day.
A new plan approved by Iran’s Supreme Leader was submitted, only to be rejected face-to-face again. This deadlock—what is it really waiting for? The next round of bids, or a bigger event? The answer may be right there this weekend.
#市场结构 #宏观分析 $BTC $ETH $XAU