$HYPE
Many people believe that the hype’s current price has already peaked, because if you calculate it, the FDV is already 90 billion.
Personally, I think hype is still in an early stage. The main difference is that people have different views on hype’s fully diluted market cap in the future.
Granted, based on the FDV, it’s indeed a very high market cap. The currently unallocated portions are mainly in two parts:
1. Team allocation: 24%
2. Treasury: escrowed/pledged emissions and community rewards: 38.8%
The gap lies in what form these allocations will flow into the market.
Personally, I believe the team will fully pledge all of its allocation next, extracting only the staking rewards. As for the treasury allocation, it will also only be used for staking rewards and will not involve large-scale airdrops. The reasons are as follows:
1. In the past few months, the team’s sold share has been 433,000 tokens per month, which is exactly equal to the full-pledge staking rewards of the 24% allocation.
2. The mainnet has already launched hype collateralized lending, with a collateral ratio of 65%. If there were large-scale team unlocks and airdrop distributions, it would cause liquidations—i.e., all stakers would be forced to get liquidated. I don’t think Jeff wouldn’t realize that.
3. If we backtest the team’s full-pledge staking rewards at today’s price, it comes to around $450 million, which is more than enough to cover the team’s compensation and rewards.
4. I believe Jeff won’t do anything that harms the ecosystem or the token price.
If the above assumptions hold, then hype’s fully circulating market cap would be only about $30 billion—completely undervalued.
Hopefully Jeff can clarify this at Token2049.
The above is purely my personal judgment and may not be correct. Please stay rational 🙂↔️
Many people believe that the hype’s current price has already peaked, because if you calculate it, the FDV is already 90 billion.
Personally, I think hype is still in an early stage. The main difference is that people have different views on hype’s fully diluted market cap in the future.
Granted, based on the FDV, it’s indeed a very high market cap. The currently unallocated portions are mainly in two parts:
1. Team allocation: 24%
2. Treasury: escrowed/pledged emissions and community rewards: 38.8%
The gap lies in what form these allocations will flow into the market.
Personally, I believe the team will fully pledge all of its allocation next, extracting only the staking rewards. As for the treasury allocation, it will also only be used for staking rewards and will not involve large-scale airdrops. The reasons are as follows:
1. In the past few months, the team’s sold share has been 433,000 tokens per month, which is exactly equal to the full-pledge staking rewards of the 24% allocation.
2. The mainnet has already launched hype collateralized lending, with a collateral ratio of 65%. If there were large-scale team unlocks and airdrop distributions, it would cause liquidations—i.e., all stakers would be forced to get liquidated. I don’t think Jeff wouldn’t realize that.
3. If we backtest the team’s full-pledge staking rewards at today’s price, it comes to around $450 million, which is more than enough to cover the team’s compensation and rewards.
4. I believe Jeff won’t do anything that harms the ecosystem or the token price.
If the above assumptions hold, then hype’s fully circulating market cap would be only about $30 billion—completely undervalued.
Hopefully Jeff can clarify this at Token2049.
The above is purely my personal judgment and may not be correct. Please stay rational 🙂↔️