Rhythm on the screen: Benson Sun says this Bitcoin cycle is more like a “slow bull”—one step at a time making new highs, not like the blow-off tops seen in 2013 or 2017. Before the real top arrives, there may be several rounds of local top signals.
His core view is that the buy-side structure has changed: after 2021, the main players shifted from retail traders to listed companies, spot ETFs, and corporate treasuries. Institutions buy more spot, and some also do Delta Neutral arbitrage, so older indicators like the funding rate and MVRV Z-Score may not necessarily reach extreme values again at the cycle top. Instead, you should focus on whether institutional capital has follow-through.
He also mentioned an institutional liquidity index (ILI) (based on USD liquidity, Strategy’s mNAV, and net inflows into BTC ETFs). Even if BTC sets new highs on a rolling 30-day basis but the ILI doesn’t follow, that’s a yellow divergence—he would reduce some altcoins and leverage. If BTC breaks the previous high while the ILI divergence is also happening and the ILI falls back below 50, that’s a red divergence—he would stop.
$BTC #比特币 #Market
His core view is that the buy-side structure has changed: after 2021, the main players shifted from retail traders to listed companies, spot ETFs, and corporate treasuries. Institutions buy more spot, and some also do Delta Neutral arbitrage, so older indicators like the funding rate and MVRV Z-Score may not necessarily reach extreme values again at the cycle top. Instead, you should focus on whether institutional capital has follow-through.
He also mentioned an institutional liquidity index (ILI) (based on USD liquidity, Strategy’s mNAV, and net inflows into BTC ETFs). Even if BTC sets new highs on a rolling 30-day basis but the ILI doesn’t follow, that’s a yellow divergence—he would reduce some altcoins and leverage. If BTC breaks the previous high while the ILI divergence is also happening and the ILI falls back below 50, that’s a red divergence—he would stop.
$BTC #比特币 #Market
