Even on the weekend, it won’t be quiet. A newly reported WSJ scoop: Trump rejected Iran’s proposed seven-day ceasefire plan, and also told his aides that after the midterm elections he plans to resume bombing. The maritime blockade remains in place and will not be lifted.
Iran had originally offered conditions—reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for eased sanctions. Instead, they were directly shut down. Early data suggests shipping traffic through the strait has already dropped to single digits—this is the choke point for nearly 40 million barrels of crude oil per day.
What’s even more troublesome is the bond market. The yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury notes has broken 5.5%, the highest level since 2004; the 10-year yield has also inched up to 5.23%, its highest since 2007. If the so-called risk-free returns are this attractive, where does the money for risk assets go?
Here’s my take: when markets open on Monday, the traditional market is likely to catch up with losses—probably driven by risk-off sentiment. But $BTC $ETH runs nonstop year-round. Over this weekend, the next few days may be when the market first prices in geopolitical risk. War plus high interest rates will put maximum strain on the fiat-currency system, and the long-term logic for hard assets remains unchanged. As for short-term volatility—nobody should pretend they know.
Don’t use leverage over the weekend. Hold on to spot positions—living longer matters more than running fast.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #地缘政治 #美债 #cryptocurrency
Iran had originally offered conditions—reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for eased sanctions. Instead, they were directly shut down. Early data suggests shipping traffic through the strait has already dropped to single digits—this is the choke point for nearly 40 million barrels of crude oil per day.
What’s even more troublesome is the bond market. The yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury notes has broken 5.5%, the highest level since 2004; the 10-year yield has also inched up to 5.23%, its highest since 2007. If the so-called risk-free returns are this attractive, where does the money for risk assets go?
Here’s my take: when markets open on Monday, the traditional market is likely to catch up with losses—probably driven by risk-off sentiment. But $BTC $ETH runs nonstop year-round. Over this weekend, the next few days may be when the market first prices in geopolitical risk. War plus high interest rates will put maximum strain on the fiat-currency system, and the long-term logic for hard assets remains unchanged. As for short-term volatility—nobody should pretend they know.
Don’t use leverage over the weekend. Hold on to spot positions—living longer matters more than running fast.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #地缘政治 #美债 #cryptocurrency