#Trump rejected Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal and told aides he expects to resume bombing after November's midterms — removing the Hormuz resolution that had been Bitcoin's primary macro tailwind this week. Morgan Stanley abandoned its bearish dollar view, now forecasting DXY at 104 by mid-2027 with two more Fed hikes (December and March) — stretching this week's dollar headwind from a trade into a multi-quarter regime. Treasury volatility (MOVE) jumped 30% to its highest since March while Bitcoin implied volatility (BVIV) sits near yearly lows at 37 — a divergence that reads as either resilience or complacency. CryptoQuant's MVRV signal marked August 20 as Bitcoin's early bull market entry at $71,255. 81% of circulating Bitcoin hasn't moved in six months.