Even on the weekend, things don’t calm down. Trump directly rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal, and also told people around him that after the midterm elections, they’ll keep bombing. Iran had initially shown some willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the conditions were to lift sanctions and remove the maritime blockade. With this kind of stance, it’s hard to expect a breakthrough in the short term.
$BTC is already numb to geopolitical news at this level. Two years ago, once this story broke, betting odds would’ve already moved sharply. What the market is truly worried about now is U.S. Treasury yields: the 30-year has broken above 5.5%, the highest since 2004, and the 10-year is hovering near 5.23%. With the risk-free rate this high, valuations of risk assets are being compressed—this is what’s hanging over everyone’s heads.
My take: before the midterm elections in mid-November, it’ll be a dead-loop of fighting and talking. Don’t expect the Middle East to suddenly quiet down. For crypto, geopolitical premium and tightening liquidity largely offset each other; $ETH and the broader market will likely continue to trade sideways and grind. The weekend order book is thin—don’t go in with high leverage. Save some ammunition, and reassess on Monday.
The China-U.S. summit has just wrapped up as well, and the statements on the Taiwan Strait have been relatively tough. This line will need to be watched going forward.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #加密货币 #美债 #geopolitics
$BTC is already numb to geopolitical news at this level. Two years ago, once this story broke, betting odds would’ve already moved sharply. What the market is truly worried about now is U.S. Treasury yields: the 30-year has broken above 5.5%, the highest since 2004, and the 10-year is hovering near 5.23%. With the risk-free rate this high, valuations of risk assets are being compressed—this is what’s hanging over everyone’s heads.
My take: before the midterm elections in mid-November, it’ll be a dead-loop of fighting and talking. Don’t expect the Middle East to suddenly quiet down. For crypto, geopolitical premium and tightening liquidity largely offset each other; $ETH and the broader market will likely continue to trade sideways and grind. The weekend order book is thin—don’t go in with high leverage. Save some ammunition, and reassess on Monday.
The China-U.S. summit has just wrapped up as well, and the statements on the Taiwan Strait have been relatively tough. This line will need to be watched going forward.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #加密货币 #美债 #geopolitics