Trading Journal #032
Last time I checked: At the time of this check, the BTC price had already fallen below the observation line left behind in the previous record. According to the original record, the old conditions should be marked as invalid. What I can confirm here is the current position; I can’t fill in whether it broke through in between, and I can’t treat this quote as the price at the historically agreed-upon moment.
Today I open the chart: BTC is around 84.0k. The unusual thought is: after the old line becomes invalid, can this latest pullback be taken directly as a new sell signal?
Daily price: BTC 84103.65000000
My decision: Wait. I will wait until this new observation line is broken again before looking to see whether it stays above; until the conditions appear, I won’t rewrite a drop below the old line into a sell signal, nor will I describe the current quote as support. This might mean missing a segment of the rebound, but what I’m getting in return is that the triggering logic does not change just because of a single quote. Here, the judgment worth continuing to observe is “reclaiming/standing back above,” not predicting that BTC will definitely go back. If later prices merely touch briefly and then fall again, this assumption of “reclaiming” fails, and the observation line cannot automatically become valid.
Next-day recap: Tomorrow at 09:30, readers should self-check whether BTC breaks above 84103.65000000; if it doesn’t break, the assumption that “tomorrow will reclaim” fails, and we continue waiting.
Last time I checked: At the time of this check, the BTC price had already fallen below the observation line left behind in the previous record. According to the original record, the old conditions should be marked as invalid. What I can confirm here is the current position; I can’t fill in whether it broke through in between, and I can’t treat this quote as the price at the historically agreed-upon moment.
Today I open the chart: BTC is around 84.0k. The unusual thought is: after the old line becomes invalid, can this latest pullback be taken directly as a new sell signal?
Daily price: BTC 84103.65000000
My decision: Wait. I will wait until this new observation line is broken again before looking to see whether it stays above; until the conditions appear, I won’t rewrite a drop below the old line into a sell signal, nor will I describe the current quote as support. This might mean missing a segment of the rebound, but what I’m getting in return is that the triggering logic does not change just because of a single quote. Here, the judgment worth continuing to observe is “reclaiming/standing back above,” not predicting that BTC will definitely go back. If later prices merely touch briefly and then fall again, this assumption of “reclaiming” fails, and the observation line cannot automatically become valid.
Next-day recap: Tomorrow at 09:30, readers should self-check whether BTC breaks above 84103.65000000; if it doesn’t break, the assumption that “tomorrow will reclaim” fails, and we continue waiting.