Wu Shuo has learned from a Galaxy Research report that the U.S. CFTC has issued guidance on “referencing the market” in connection with bets on individuals’ speech and conduct (such as whether executives will use certain words in earnings calls). The guidance deems such activity highly susceptible to manipulation by a single person and to the effects of information asymmetry, and notes that exchanges listing these contracts would face much stricter scrutiny. Galaxy’s analysis says this regulation has clear blind spots: if the relevant party holds no positions and does not participate in trading, simply using personal will to speak certain words does not constitute manipulation under the Commodity Exchange Act. At the same time, protected by the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, regulators also cannot restrict or compel individuals’ speech, meaning that purely verbal interference cannot be covered by the existing rules.