CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said that the 30-day and 365-day moving-average ratio of the Adjusted MVRV (aMVRV) for Bitcoin broke above 1.0 on September 20. According to his model, the market moved from the “Early Bull” stage to the “Bull” stage, when Bitcoin’s price was $80,691. He said the ratio is currently 1.018, and as long as it stays above 1.0, the market structure will remain mildly bullish. This is the sixth time since 2012 that this kind of switch has occurred. Of the first five times, four ended during the bull market phase with prices higher than when they entered. (Background: Bitcoin demand turns positive! But stablecoin inflows are still low.) (Additional context: How far has Bitcoin’s bull-market progress bar come? Know these 7 key indicators to avoid blindly chasing the top.) Key summary aMVRV moving-average ratio broke above 1.0 on September 20 and is now 1.018 The model says Bitcoin moved from Early Bull to Bull when it was at $80,691 This “Early Bull to Bull” switch has occurred six times since 2012; in five prior cases, four ended with an exit price higher than the entry price Crypto data platform CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a post on X on the 26th that the 30-day/365-day moving-average ratio of Bitcoin’s Adjusted MVRV (aMVRV) broke above the 1.0 threshold on September 20. According to his model, on that day the market transitioned from the “Early Bull” phase into the “Bull” phase, when Bitcoin’s price was $80,691. On August 20, the Adjusted MVRV 30DMA/365DMA ratio crossed above its own 365-day moving average. At that point, the market entered the Early Bull phase. BTC was trading at $71,255 that day. The Early Bull phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin gained 13%. On September 20,… pic.twitter.com/I7gd789MJ8 — Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 26, 2026 MVRV is the ratio of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization to its “realized market capitalization.” Realized market capitalization calculates each Bitcoin using the price at the last time it moved on-chain; it can be seen as the market’s average cost basis. The higher the ratio, the more aggregate unrealized profit holders have on their books. Here, the moving-average ratio compares the average of aMVRV over the last 30 days to the average over the last 365 days. When the ratio exceeds 1.0, it means the profit level over the past month is already higher than the average of the past year. Prior to this, the ratio first crossed above its own 365-day moving average on August 20. The model interpreted that step as the start of the Early Bull phase. On that day, Bitcoin was trading at $71,255. The Early Bull phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose 13%. He said the ratio is currently 1.018, and at the time of the post Bitcoin was trading at $84,156. As long as the ratio holds above 1.0, the market structure will remain biased to the upside. The chart he attached divides the bull market into three tiers: Early Bull, Bull, and High Bull. Bitcoin is currently in the middle tier. In four of the first five cases, prices closed above the entry price Axel Adler Jr. said this was the sixth time since 2012 that the “Early Bull to Bull” transition occurred. Among the first five times, four ended with Bitcoin’s price higher than when it entered the bull market phase. Based on the chart he attached, the previous bull-market phase occurred in mid-2025; afterward, the ratio fell back below 1.0 and only re-entered this time. The only exception was August 2015. That bull-market phase lasted just 16 days, then the market reverted to Early Bull, before re-entering Bull again in October, after which it continued to rise. Binance quotes show that as of 5:18 p.m. Taiwan time on September 26, Bitcoin was at $83,966. Over the past 24 hours, it has been moving between $83,183 and $85,255—about 4% higher than the entry price on September 20. This model looks only at whether the ratio is holding above 1.0; Axel Adler Jr. did not provide a price target. FAQ What does a Bitcoin MVRV moving-average ratio breaking above 1.0 mean? It means the average of Adjusted MVRV over the past 30 days is higher than the average over the past 365 days. Based on this, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s model determined that Bitcoin entered the bull phase on September 20 at $80,691. How has Bitcoin performed after entering the bull market using the MVRV model? Since 2012 there have been 6 times of “Early Bull to Bull.” In 4 of the first 5 times, the price was higher at the end of the bull phase than at entry. The exception was August 2015, when it lasted just 16 days before reverting to Early Bull; it re-entered Bull again in October. Related coverage Analyst: Bitcoin can’t really return to a bear market! The share of loss-making UTXOs drops sharply Bitcoin’s new buyers are only 2% away from breakeven—the pressure shifts to holders from March to June Where has Bitcoin’s bull-market progress bar reached? Master these 7 key indicators to avoid blindly chasing the top “Bitcoin is confirmed to have entered a bull market! Analyst: MVRV ratio breaks above 1.0” This article was first published on 動區BlockTempo (BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain news media).