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Sep 26 Market Update:
1. Market Performance: After the settlement of large-sized options, BTC trades in a high-range consolidation, with $84,000 support coming under a test
Bitcoin tight-range consolidation: After experiencing the largest quarterly options expiry of the year on Sep 25 (over $16 billion), Bitcoin (BTC) entered a digestion phase following the release of volatility on Sep 26. Price moved within the $83,800 to $84,500 range. In the short term, the key focus is whether the breakout through the $84,000 level can complete an effective “top-to-bottom transition” and confirm support.
Long/short sentiment and options positioning: As market makers release Gamma, short-term implied volatility (IV) has dipped slightly. However, in the derivatives market, the open interest (OI) for forward-looking call options (Calls) with strike prices in the $95,000 to $100,000 range expiring at the end of October remains high, indicating that institutional medium/long-term bullish consensus has not been damaged by the short-term pullback.
2. Regulatory Trends and Global Compliance Developments
Brazil countdown to new rules on custodial wallets: Regulators continue to tighten compliance requirements for self-custody wallets. The Central Bank of Brazil has now confirmed that starting next month, transfers of crypto assets from self-custody wallets for any single transaction exceeding $10,000 will require mandatory compliance reporting.
Polymarket regulatory lawsuit gains momentum: Ongoing industry attention has been drawn to the compliance allegations regarding decentralized prediction market Polymarket, as brought by New York State’s judicial authorities. How decentralized prediction protocols conduct business within North America’s compliance framework has become a focal point of market discussion.

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