Circle mints topic takes the top spot on the forum｜$500M USDC is not the same as $500M in buy orders｜SOL around 120, I’ll wait
My take is fairly cautious: the expansion of stablecoin supply is worth tracking, but you can’t just translate a minting screenshot into SOL and expect SOL to jump immediately. Binance Forum’s current hot list #1 is #CircleMints500MUSDCOnSolana. Multiple reports citing on-chain records say that at Beijing time 05:42 and 11:04 on September 26, roughly 250M USDC were minted on Solana each time, totaling about 500M. I can cross-check the reports and the forum discussion, but I haven’t obtained Circle’s separate announcements for these two mints, nor the two transaction signatures that can be independently verified—so I’m treating the “500M” as an on-chain claim that still needs continuous verification, not as Circle’s officially disclosed new net capital inflow. I also won’t use it to infer how much has already flowed into DEXs.
More importantly, it’s about the mechanism. Circle’s own Solana documentation clearly distinguishes between “pre-mint” and “entering circulation.” On non-EVM chains, Circle can place USDC into a pre-mint address first. Those balances aren’t counted in circulating supply yet; only after they’re released into customer accounts does circulating volume increase. Even if circulating volume does increase, holders might use the funds for payments, exchange into other stablecoins, re-allocate across chains, do market making, or temporarily hold them in their wallets. USDC is a settlement instrument backed by dollar liabilities—it’s not a direct “buy order for SOL.” What can create sustained demand for SOL is the increase in fees and network usage driven by subsequent trading, payments, and DeFi activity—not the minting news itself. And fees are not 1:1 linearly related to SOL’s market value either. The hot-list narrative equating “minting” with “institutional sweeping SOL” is something I won’t automatically accept.
The market has already provided a counter-evidence that must be respected. I checked Kraken’s SOL/USD: about $119.95. Over the past 24 hours, the high was $122.91, the low was $117.90, and the open was $122.12. The price did not re-establish above the opening price just because the topic took the top spot. I’ll continue monitoring Circle’s official circulating-supply figures—whether funds actually shifted from the relevant addresses into trading and payment scenarios. At the same time, I’ll watch whether SOL can reclaim 122.1. If there’s only a surge in attention but no synchronized confirmation from price action and on-chain usage, the bullish logic is missing the most critical link. If it breaks below 117.9, then my short-term support/continuation assumptions should be immediately invalidated.
If I were trading it myself: I would not participate now. The only direction I’d consider is spot trading with a light position and in line with the trend. I would never treat the news as a market-order chase. Only if two consecutive complete 15-minute candlesticks close above 122.2, then after a pullback from 121.8–122.2 it holds—and there’s no Circle official data contradicting an increase in new circulation—would I attempt a long with at most 0.3% of total capital. I’d cut the position in half at 124.5, and close the remainder at 127. After entering, if the price loses 120.8, I’d cut in half; if it loses 119.2, I’d stop out and fully exit. If I haven’t entered and it breaks below 117.9, I’d cancel the entire plan.
If subsequent verification shows it’s just a shift in pre-mint inventory and not a net increase in circulating supply, or if there’s an expansion of safety risk for transactions at another exchange, I would first withdraw the trading hypothesis. I wouldn’t use a “long-term adoption” story as an excuse for a short-term loss.
Source: Binance Forum hot list; Circle’s official explanations about Solana pre-minting and USDC circulation; Kraken SOL/USD real-time quotes.#CircleMints500MUSDCOnSolana #SOL #USDC
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My take is fairly cautious: the expansion of stablecoin supply is worth tracking, but you can’t just translate a minting screenshot into SOL and expect SOL to jump immediately. Binance Forum’s current hot list #1 is #CircleMints500MUSDCOnSolana. Multiple reports citing on-chain records say that at Beijing time 05:42 and 11:04 on September 26, roughly 250M USDC were minted on Solana each time, totaling about 500M. I can cross-check the reports and the forum discussion, but I haven’t obtained Circle’s separate announcements for these two mints, nor the two transaction signatures that can be independently verified—so I’m treating the “500M” as an on-chain claim that still needs continuous verification, not as Circle’s officially disclosed new net capital inflow. I also won’t use it to infer how much has already flowed into DEXs.
More importantly, it’s about the mechanism. Circle’s own Solana documentation clearly distinguishes between “pre-mint” and “entering circulation.” On non-EVM chains, Circle can place USDC into a pre-mint address first. Those balances aren’t counted in circulating supply yet; only after they’re released into customer accounts does circulating volume increase. Even if circulating volume does increase, holders might use the funds for payments, exchange into other stablecoins, re-allocate across chains, do market making, or temporarily hold them in their wallets. USDC is a settlement instrument backed by dollar liabilities—it’s not a direct “buy order for SOL.” What can create sustained demand for SOL is the increase in fees and network usage driven by subsequent trading, payments, and DeFi activity—not the minting news itself. And fees are not 1:1 linearly related to SOL’s market value either. The hot-list narrative equating “minting” with “institutional sweeping SOL” is something I won’t automatically accept.
The market has already provided a counter-evidence that must be respected. I checked Kraken’s SOL/USD: about $119.95. Over the past 24 hours, the high was $122.91, the low was $117.90, and the open was $122.12. The price did not re-establish above the opening price just because the topic took the top spot. I’ll continue monitoring Circle’s official circulating-supply figures—whether funds actually shifted from the relevant addresses into trading and payment scenarios. At the same time, I’ll watch whether SOL can reclaim 122.1. If there’s only a surge in attention but no synchronized confirmation from price action and on-chain usage, the bullish logic is missing the most critical link. If it breaks below 117.9, then my short-term support/continuation assumptions should be immediately invalidated.
If I were trading it myself: I would not participate now. The only direction I’d consider is spot trading with a light position and in line with the trend. I would never treat the news as a market-order chase. Only if two consecutive complete 15-minute candlesticks close above 122.2, then after a pullback from 121.8–122.2 it holds—and there’s no Circle official data contradicting an increase in new circulation—would I attempt a long with at most 0.3% of total capital. I’d cut the position in half at 124.5, and close the remainder at 127. After entering, if the price loses 120.8, I’d cut in half; if it loses 119.2, I’d stop out and fully exit. If I haven’t entered and it breaks below 117.9, I’d cancel the entire plan.
If subsequent verification shows it’s just a shift in pre-mint inventory and not a net increase in circulating supply, or if there’s an expansion of safety risk for transactions at another exchange, I would first withdraw the trading hypothesis. I wouldn’t use a “long-term adoption” story as an excuse for a short-term loss.
Source: Binance Forum hot list; Circle’s official explanations about Solana pre-minting and USDC circulation; Kraken SOL/USD real-time quotes.#CircleMints500MUSDCOnSolana #SOL #USDC
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
