On the weekend macro front, this gossip is a bit too big—let me talk about two things directly tied to crypto prices.
First is the Middle East. WSJ reported that Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal, and also told his aides that after the midterm elections in mid-November, they would continue bombing. Iran had been willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting sanctions—directly, the talks fell apart. Through-traffic for ships in the strait dropped to single digits, but Saudi Arabia took advantage of the chaos to push exports up to 6.0 million barrels per day, the highest level in the seven months since the war began. The supply-side uncertainty in oil hasn’t been resolved, and the risk-hedging narrative represented by $BTC also remains suspended.
Second is U.S. Treasuries—which I think is the real headache. The 30-year yield has risen above 5.5%, the first time since 2004; the 10-year yield also touched around 5.23%. Even Fed officials have admitted that inflation hasn’t been dealt with yet. If risk-free returns are this high, why would smart money rush into high-beta assets like $ETH first? Unless expectations for liquidity shift first.
My take: geopolitical churn plus ongoing stress on the bond market means bleeding—short-term volatility is unavoidable. Don’t rush to buy the dip, and don’t panic and cut losses. But every time sovereign credit gets called into question, the long-term narrative behind $BTC feels even stronger instead. Keep your ammo, and wait until the panic selling comes out.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #US treasuries
First is the Middle East. WSJ reported that Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal, and also told his aides that after the midterm elections in mid-November, they would continue bombing. Iran had been willing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting sanctions—directly, the talks fell apart. Through-traffic for ships in the strait dropped to single digits, but Saudi Arabia took advantage of the chaos to push exports up to 6.0 million barrels per day, the highest level in the seven months since the war began. The supply-side uncertainty in oil hasn’t been resolved, and the risk-hedging narrative represented by $BTC also remains suspended.
Second is U.S. Treasuries—which I think is the real headache. The 30-year yield has risen above 5.5%, the first time since 2004; the 10-year yield also touched around 5.23%. Even Fed officials have admitted that inflation hasn’t been dealt with yet. If risk-free returns are this high, why would smart money rush into high-beta assets like $ETH first? Unless expectations for liquidity shift first.
My take: geopolitical churn plus ongoing stress on the bond market means bleeding—short-term volatility is unavoidable. Don’t rush to buy the dip, and don’t panic and cut losses. But every time sovereign credit gets called into question, the long-term narrative behind $BTC feels even stronger instead. Keep your ammo, and wait until the panic selling comes out.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #ETH #宏观经济 #地缘政治 #US treasuries