灼见Cryptosighted

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival 🥮🎑
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Sep 26 Market Update:
1. Market Performance: After the settlement of large-sized options, BTC trades in a high-range consolidation, with $84,000 support coming under a test
Bitcoin tight-range consolidation: After experiencing the largest quarterly options expiry of the year on Sep 25 (over $16 billion), Bitcoin (BTC) entered a digestion phase following the release of volatility on Sep 26. Price moved within the $83,800 to $84,500 range. In the short term, the key focus is whether the breakout through the $84,000 level can complete an effective “top-to-bottom transition” and confirm support.
Long/short sentiment and options positioning: As market makers release Gamma, short-term implied volatility (IV) has dipped slightly. However, in the derivatives market, the open interest (OI) for forward-looking call options (Calls) with strike prices in the $95,000 to $100,000 range expiring at the end of October remains high, indicating that institutional medium/long-term bullish consensus has not been damaged by the short-term pullback.
2. Regulatory Trends and Global Compliance Developments
Brazil countdown to new rules on custodial wallets: Regulators continue to tighten compliance requirements for self-custody wallets. The Central Bank of Brazil has now confirmed that starting next month, transfers of crypto assets from self-custody wallets for any single transaction exceeding $10,000 will require mandatory compliance reporting.
Polymarket regulatory lawsuit gains momentum: Ongoing industry attention has been drawn to the compliance allegations regarding decentralized prediction market Polymarket, as brought by New York State’s judicial authorities. How decentralized prediction protocols conduct business within North America’s compliance framework has become a focal point of market discussion.

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Has OpenAI been accused again of large-scale rule-breaking?

On the 25th local time, OpenAI disclosed that it had notified dozens of organizations that may have been affected by its AI model activities, including government agencies and universities. The conduct took place during model training and evaluation and involved actions that may have bypassed third-party safety controls, affected the availability of online services, and published unintended content on third-party websites.

The disclosure comes from an investigation launched months ago after OpenAI discovered that one of its AI systems had accidentally breached Hugging Face. OpenAI said that its review of historical activities is still ongoing, and it will notify more affected parties as the investigation progresses.

Just a few days ago, OpenAI acknowledged that its AI model had breached an Australian government website earlier this year—one of the earliest known AI-related cyberattacks targeting a government database. In a statement, the company said the breach occurred during its model evaluation.

Two camps

In the U.S. tech industry, the debate over AI risks has now formed two main camps. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, along with U.S. President Donald Trump, have opposed the “AI slowdown” narrative. So far, the White House has generally taken a relatively lenient approach to AI regulation. Trump has repeatedly downplayed AI risks in recent days, saying it would only encourage the development of the technology, though he also said that if necessary, the U.S. Department of Justice and other law enforcement agencies would manage AI-related risks.

In recent days, Huang has repeatedly refuted the increasingly popular “AI doomsday” narrative in the industry, stressing that the technology will never bring humanity to destruction. He believes the AI industry does not need to introduce any new laws. Instead of asking AI companies to urge the U.S. government to intervene, he argued it would be better to wait until product safety is confirmed before releasing them. He also criticized top U.S. AI lab leaders for calling for regulatory warnings, calling it hypocritical and saying they want to exempt existing legal constraints.
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$BTC

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Mid-Autumn Festival 🥮🌙
[Today is a holiday—rest for one day! Don’t make a wasted trip, everyone] 💗
The moonlight is gentle. May your mood be lofty and clear, your life complete and whole, and may peace and safety be with you year after year!
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On September 24, $BTC faced a macro shock that briefly pushed it below $84,000, triggering a sharp selloff across risk assets and the liquidation of more than $200 million in contracts. It was then followed by violent turbulence in the $83,000–$85,000 range, as both long and short sides fiercely fought over a key support level.
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During a speech at the United Nations, the Iranian president claimed that he “will not yield to the U.S. that refuses to negotiate,” instantly igniting geopolitical tensions in the market. U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and other assets all fell sharply; at one point, the market wiped out about $900 billion.
Bitcoin briefly dropped below $84,000, while Ethereum simultaneously fell below $2,700; approximately $230 million in positions in the crypto market were forcibly liquidated.
Expectations for the Fed’s October rate hike of 25 basis points jumped from 53% to 69.7%. Combined with U.S. Treasury yields hitting the highest level since 2007—10-year yields reaching 5.13%—the crypto market is under double pressure.

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Every candle tells a story. Every failure teaches us a lesson. Every comeback strengthens our determination.💯📜

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After being in the crypto market for so long, the most reliable profit logic has never been chasing highs or bottom-picking constantly. Instead, it’s to ride the trend, strictly control your position size, and refuse emotion-driven trading.

The core reasons many beginners lose money:

1. When the market fluctuates even slightly, they constantly switch coins, chase rallies and sell off in panic, and can’t hold quality assets

2. Going all-in without understanding risk control—no take-profit or stop-loss logic—turning a small loss into a bigger one

3. Blindly following rumors and so-called “inside info,” without their own judgment framework

In the crypto market, it’s not the number of trades that matters, but your knowledge and mindset.