#美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%
👉 利率期货在给四次加息定价
Interest rate futures are pricing four rounds of hikes.
The path implied by the contracts runs through June 2027.
Rates fall in the range of 4.75% to 5%.
The probability for the October bucket is 69.7%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1%.
As long-end yields rise, risk assets get repriced first.
Bitcoin falls back below $83,000.
The direction of prices and interest rates moves in opposite ways.
This wave of selling pressure didn’t come out of crypto itself.
The sell side was brought by macro funds.
Hike expectations are queued from October into next year.
As long-end yields rise, discount rates follow.
What gets pressured first are the most duration-sensitive assets.
In this pricing framework, crypto sits at the very end of the risk-preference spectrum.
Leverage is withdrawn first, and spot positions are then reduced passively.
For crypto, the dominant variable is interest rates—not what happens on-chain.
As long as rates don’t come down, any rebounds will be capped.
Do you think four rate hikes will actually be carried out, or will expectations run ahead? Let’s discuss in the comments.
👉 利率期货在给四次加息定价
Interest rate futures are pricing four rounds of hikes.
The path implied by the contracts runs through June 2027.
Rates fall in the range of 4.75% to 5%.
The probability for the October bucket is 69.7%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1%.
As long-end yields rise, risk assets get repriced first.
Bitcoin falls back below $83,000.
The direction of prices and interest rates moves in opposite ways.
This wave of selling pressure didn’t come out of crypto itself.
The sell side was brought by macro funds.
Hike expectations are queued from October into next year.
As long-end yields rise, discount rates follow.
What gets pressured first are the most duration-sensitive assets.
In this pricing framework, crypto sits at the very end of the risk-preference spectrum.
Leverage is withdrawn first, and spot positions are then reduced passively.
For crypto, the dominant variable is interest rates—not what happens on-chain.
As long as rates don’t come down, any rebounds will be capped.
Do you think four rate hikes will actually be carried out, or will expectations run ahead? Let’s discuss in the comments.
