#ETH
1H MACD hollow green bars: short-term rebound repair momentum is present; RSI is in a neutral range with no extreme overbought or oversold.
OI positions have been declining steadily along with the recent peak, with longs taking profits and exiting; during the consolidation phase, positions remain at low levels.
Moving averages: the current price has briefly stood above the short-term MA5; above it, 2708 and 2742 form two resistance levels.
Core idea: don’t chase the current downside; wait to place the medium-to-long-term short at the high point of the B-wave rebound, and bet on the C-wave decline.
✅ Medium-to-long-term short entry zone: 2740–2765; extreme alternative: 2780–2800
Entry confirmation signals: on 1H reaching the resistance zone, a naked-K stall in gains, RSI top divergence, MACD turning into a solid green histogram, and OI spiking then turning down.
🛑 Stop loss: 2830. If broken, the ABC correction structure fails—abandon the short thesis.
🎯 Staged take profit:
① 2626 (lower edge of the box)
② 2555 (strong daily MA120 support)
③ 2430 (ultimate ABC correction target)
Two scenario forecasts:
1) Base case: on the 1-hour chart, break upward out of the box, rebound into the resistance band and stall; once the B-wave ends, C-wave down move begins, and the medium-to-long-term short position is realized.
2) Weak rebound case: unable to break 2742, then breaks directly below the 2626 support; the B-wave disappears, and subsequent rebound highs shift lower.
Trading reflection: set direction with the larger timeframe, and time entries on the smaller timeframe. Be patient and wait for the high risk-reward short window during the B-wave rebound—don’t pre-position and endure the consolidation.
1H MACD hollow green bars: short-term rebound repair momentum is present; RSI is in a neutral range with no extreme overbought or oversold.
OI positions have been declining steadily along with the recent peak, with longs taking profits and exiting; during the consolidation phase, positions remain at low levels.
Moving averages: the current price has briefly stood above the short-term MA5; above it, 2708 and 2742 form two resistance levels.
Core idea: don’t chase the current downside; wait to place the medium-to-long-term short at the high point of the B-wave rebound, and bet on the C-wave decline.
✅ Medium-to-long-term short entry zone: 2740–2765; extreme alternative: 2780–2800
Entry confirmation signals: on 1H reaching the resistance zone, a naked-K stall in gains, RSI top divergence, MACD turning into a solid green histogram, and OI spiking then turning down.
🛑 Stop loss: 2830. If broken, the ABC correction structure fails—abandon the short thesis.
🎯 Staged take profit:
① 2626 (lower edge of the box)
② 2555 (strong daily MA120 support)
③ 2430 (ultimate ABC correction target)
Two scenario forecasts:
1) Base case: on the 1-hour chart, break upward out of the box, rebound into the resistance band and stall; once the B-wave ends, C-wave down move begins, and the medium-to-long-term short position is realized.
2) Weak rebound case: unable to break 2742, then breaks directly below the 2626 support; the B-wave disappears, and subsequent rebound highs shift lower.
Trading reflection: set direction with the larger timeframe, and time entries on the smaller timeframe. Be patient and wait for the high risk-reward short window during the B-wave rebound—don’t pre-position and endure the consolidation.