Analysis of 9.26, $BTC
US Treasury yields surge: The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.18% intraday, the highest since 2007. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC has risen sharply, and funds may flow back into the bond market. Price and Bollinger Bands: Current price is 83,969.6, having fallen below the Bollinger middle band (84,537.4) and moving between the lower-middle band. The upper and lower bands (86,251.8 / 82,823.0) are narrowing, indicating declining short-term volatility and an upcoming directional choice.
· MACD: DIF (162.3) and DEA (377.8) form a death cross, and the MACD histogram is negative (-431.0). Short-term momentum is weak, and the market is in a correction cycle.
· Changes in open interest: Open interest has dropped to 94,879 BTC, down significantly from the prior peak. This often means some leveraged positions are leaving the market. After deleveraging, if the market stabilizes, it is usually favorable for the subsequent rebound.
The probability of a 25bp rate hike in October has risen to about 71%.
Yi Fan’s personal suggestion: Within the 84,500–85,300 zone, look for, target around 83,600–82,800. Otherwise, if 82,800 is not broken, <t-2/>#BTC #ETH #BTC走势分析
US Treasury yields surge: The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.18% intraday, the highest since 2007. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC has risen sharply, and funds may flow back into the bond market. Price and Bollinger Bands: Current price is 83,969.6, having fallen below the Bollinger middle band (84,537.4) and moving between the lower-middle band. The upper and lower bands (86,251.8 / 82,823.0) are narrowing, indicating declining short-term volatility and an upcoming directional choice.
· MACD: DIF (162.3) and DEA (377.8) form a death cross, and the MACD histogram is negative (-431.0). Short-term momentum is weak, and the market is in a correction cycle.
· Changes in open interest: Open interest has dropped to 94,879 BTC, down significantly from the prior peak. This often means some leveraged positions are leaving the market. After deleveraging, if the market stabilizes, it is usually favorable for the subsequent rebound.
The probability of a 25bp rate hike in October has risen to about 71%.
Yi Fan’s personal suggestion: Within the 84,500–85,300 zone, look for, target around 83,600–82,800. Otherwise, if 82,800 is not broken, <t-2/>#BTC #ETH #BTC走势分析
