#Polymarket银行倒闭押注引FDIC关注 When reviewing on Sunday night, I said SOL's 4h percentile was 97.7%, and that we should reduce positions and wait for a pullback. As a result, on Monday it ran up to 106 and threw out the position I had manually closed at 104 by two points; then on Wednesday it surged again to around 122. Looking back, the take-profit order at 108.5 had been sitting there for two weeks without getting hit. The first batch I added at 75 actually captured an unrealized gain of 31%, just three points short of the target price. In execution, I was indeed too impatient: maxing out the percentile does not mean an immediate reversal. In a strong structure, the cost of top fishing is simply giving up part of the move.
Now SOL is at 122, the 4h percentile is 95.8%, 24h is +3.32%, shorts were liquidated by another 18.1M, while longs only got liquidated by 4.8M. This structure is very unusual: price is still being pushed higher, but OI at 7.63B has not increased significantly, and funding at +0.0028% is not that high either. Either short stop losses are being swept repeatedly, or spot is driving the move while the futures market is not keeping up. I will leave my 15% SOL position unchanged for now; the position I added below 98 will not be increased, the take-profit level has been moved up to 127, and the stop loss is 113.
Is there anyone like me who, after being shaken out around 104, now looks at 122 and can't bring themselves to buy? Give me a reason to convince me whether I should keep waiting for a pullback or chase the breakout. I’d like to hear it. Not investment advice.
Now SOL is at 122, the 4h percentile is 95.8%, 24h is +3.32%, shorts were liquidated by another 18.1M, while longs only got liquidated by 4.8M. This structure is very unusual: price is still being pushed higher, but OI at 7.63B has not increased significantly, and funding at +0.0028% is not that high either. Either short stop losses are being swept repeatedly, or spot is driving the move while the futures market is not keeping up. I will leave my 15% SOL position unchanged for now; the position I added below 98 will not be increased, the take-profit level has been moved up to 127, and the stop loss is 113.
Is there anyone like me who, after being shaken out around 104, now looks at 122 and can't bring themselves to buy? Give me a reason to convince me whether I should keep waiting for a pullback or chase the breakout. I’d like to hear it. Not investment advice.