◆ Morning Briefing · Sep 26
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good morning.
【Key Takeaway】
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher on the previous trading day, with the VIX falling to 14.9—an incremental uptrend under low volatility. Our stance: don’t chase; hold positions; leave any new risk to better prices.
【Overnight Markets】
On the prior trading day (2026-09-25), all three major U.S. stock indexes finished higher. The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.4, up 0.51%, about +1.21% over the past week; the Nasdaq closed at 27,068.7, up 0.48%, about +2.06% over the past week and +3.59% over the past month. Among Dow components, Dell rose more than 5%. The VIX closed at 14.9, down 5.11% on the day and -3.75% over the past month. The DXY was 101.0, down 0.25% on the day and +2.14% over the past month. The 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 5.184%, +2.2 basis points versus the prior day. Asian market data was not provided in sync, so we do not judge whether it’s aligned or diverging.
【Today’s Headlines】
Two pieces of information are worth looking at together. First, Fed official Hammack said that potential inflation could be higher than the target, with pressure on both the demand and supply sides, and that monetary policy needs to ensure it remains restrictive. Schmid also said the Fed has not yet resolved the inflation problem. Second, diesel prices hit a record high, which institutions view as a bigger inflation challenge facing the Fed. Our interpretation: this is a confirmation of a hawkish posture—not a shift in direction. As the 10-Year Treasury Yield continues to climb above 5.18%, it suggests the market is pricing restrictive rates for a longer period. Valuation expansion driven by expectations of liquidity easing will ultimately need earnings to deliver; otherwise it will likely revert. Diesel cost components tend to be “sticky,” meaning the threshold for a Rate Cut is higher than what the market is willing to believe.
【Smart Money Watch】
· Berkshire Hathaway: Bought 1.68 million shares of LEN from 09-23 to 09-25, with an average price of $81.19; shares increased to 25.38 million (Form 4, filed 09-25)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST by 468 (-42%), about $45.4M (09-25 holdings)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST by 468 (-77%), about $6.4M (09-25 holdings)
Our take: Berkshire added to LEN around $81, increasing to 25.38 million shares—an anti-cycle allocation to builders when rates and the housing cycle are under pressure. Meanwhile, ARK cut ARKK and ARKG sharply at the same time in short-term Treasury-type instruments; it looks more like rebalancing for cash management rather than a sector preference. Please note: these are lagging public filings. Form 4 has a two-business-day reporting window; 13F is quarterly; members’ reports are up to 45 days. So these can only serve as reference and do not constitute copy-trade signals.
【Portfolio Update】
Of the eight positions previously disclosed, one has been triggered:
· NVDA at 225.087 triggered a Short (set up last night). Currently +0.15%; with a 20x setup, PnL is +3%.
The other positions have not been triggered yet; we stick with the original plan.
【Impact on Crypto】
BTC at $83,994 is down 0.13% over the past 24 hours—basically unchanged. The 10-Year Treasury Yield has risen to 5.184% (+2.2 basis points) and the DXY is up +2.14% over the past month. The holding cost of non-yielding assets is still being pushed higher, which explains why BTC lacks clear direction even as risk appetite seems to be recovering. We maintain our view: don’t look for reasons for sideways trading, and don’t add leverage when the direction is still unclear.
【Our Stance】
Our assessment of risk appetite today is neutral to cautious. The indexes are rising under low volatility, but higher Treasury yields constrain high-valuation growth stocks. Assets with a relative advantage are those with stable cash flow and low sensitivity to interest rates. We keep positioning at a neutral level, don’t add leverage, go Long only on assets with fundamental support, and the SL discipline remains unchanged.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #BTC #Macro
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bonne journée.
Bonjour. Welcome to Wall Street High Wealth Invest Channel.
Good morning.
【Key Takeaway】
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher on the previous trading day, with the VIX falling to 14.9—an incremental uptrend under low volatility. Our stance: don’t chase; hold positions; leave any new risk to better prices.
【Overnight Markets】
On the prior trading day (2026-09-25), all three major U.S. stock indexes finished higher. The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.4, up 0.51%, about +1.21% over the past week; the Nasdaq closed at 27,068.7, up 0.48%, about +2.06% over the past week and +3.59% over the past month. Among Dow components, Dell rose more than 5%. The VIX closed at 14.9, down 5.11% on the day and -3.75% over the past month. The DXY was 101.0, down 0.25% on the day and +2.14% over the past month. The 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 5.184%, +2.2 basis points versus the prior day. Asian market data was not provided in sync, so we do not judge whether it’s aligned or diverging.
【Today’s Headlines】
Two pieces of information are worth looking at together. First, Fed official Hammack said that potential inflation could be higher than the target, with pressure on both the demand and supply sides, and that monetary policy needs to ensure it remains restrictive. Schmid also said the Fed has not yet resolved the inflation problem. Second, diesel prices hit a record high, which institutions view as a bigger inflation challenge facing the Fed. Our interpretation: this is a confirmation of a hawkish posture—not a shift in direction. As the 10-Year Treasury Yield continues to climb above 5.18%, it suggests the market is pricing restrictive rates for a longer period. Valuation expansion driven by expectations of liquidity easing will ultimately need earnings to deliver; otherwise it will likely revert. Diesel cost components tend to be “sticky,” meaning the threshold for a Rate Cut is higher than what the market is willing to believe.
【Smart Money Watch】
· Berkshire Hathaway: Bought 1.68 million shares of LEN from 09-23 to 09-25, with an average price of $81.19; shares increased to 25.38 million (Form 4, filed 09-25)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST by 468 (-42%), about $45.4M (09-25 holdings)
· ARK (Cathie Wood): Reduced GOLDMAN FS TRSY OBLIG INST by 468 (-77%), about $6.4M (09-25 holdings)
Our take: Berkshire added to LEN around $81, increasing to 25.38 million shares—an anti-cycle allocation to builders when rates and the housing cycle are under pressure. Meanwhile, ARK cut ARKK and ARKG sharply at the same time in short-term Treasury-type instruments; it looks more like rebalancing for cash management rather than a sector preference. Please note: these are lagging public filings. Form 4 has a two-business-day reporting window; 13F is quarterly; members’ reports are up to 45 days. So these can only serve as reference and do not constitute copy-trade signals.
【Portfolio Update】
Of the eight positions previously disclosed, one has been triggered:
· NVDA at 225.087 triggered a Short (set up last night). Currently +0.15%; with a 20x setup, PnL is +3%.
The other positions have not been triggered yet; we stick with the original plan.
【Impact on Crypto】
BTC at $83,994 is down 0.13% over the past 24 hours—basically unchanged. The 10-Year Treasury Yield has risen to 5.184% (+2.2 basis points) and the DXY is up +2.14% over the past month. The holding cost of non-yielding assets is still being pushed higher, which explains why BTC lacks clear direction even as risk appetite seems to be recovering. We maintain our view: don’t look for reasons for sideways trading, and don’t add leverage when the direction is still unclear.
【Our Stance】
Our assessment of risk appetite today is neutral to cautious. The indexes are rising under low volatility, but higher Treasury yields constrain high-valuation growth stocks. Assets with a relative advantage are those with stable cash flow and low sensitivity to interest rates. We keep positioning at a neutral level, don’t add leverage, go Long only on assets with fundamental support, and the SL discipline remains unchanged.
$BTC $XAU $XAG #BTC #Macro
Your private advisor on Wall Street.
Bonne journée.
