【What Am I Waiting For—An ETH Order-Book Diary from an Old “Rug” Trader】
Yesterday I saw ETH still hovering around between the mid-2600s and the high-2700s. To be honest, my hands are a bit itchy. But the old wounds from 2021 tell me that this is not the time for impulse.
On the daily chart, this spot is extremely subtle. Over the past 7 days it’s risen 2.5%—it looks like a breakout might be coming. But in the last 24 hours it’s down 0.3%, like someone standing on the edge of a cliff, testing the ground: one step forward is opportunity, one step back is a bottomless pit. Trading volume has clearly increased at a key level, suggesting both bulls and bears are fighting for real—this isn’t the kind of行情 (market move) that’s just a fake-out.
The 4-hour structure is clearer. I’m watching the support at 2613.82 very closely. Back in 2021, I climbed up from here—and I also fell down from here. I know what to expect: if this level breaks, many leveraged positions will get liquidated. At that point, it won’t be technical analysis anymore—it’ll be a stampede. But if it holds here, then 2794.31 is the next hurdle. If it breaks that level, market sentiment will change, and another wave upward isn’t out of the question.
As for the 1-hour chart—it’s just back-and-forth tug-of-war, and short-term trading is extremely difficult. I saw news that Duelbits was hacked for several million, and there was also that whole thing with Bitget. Hacker incidents like these will likely affect market sentiment in the short term, but honestly, people in the space have long been used to it. It won’t change the bigger trend.
Speaking of the FNG index at 74—greed mode. But the weekly average is only 72, which means this burst of sentiment only kicked in recently, not a sustained optimism. I’ve seen this kind of sentiment many times. Every time I think “this time is different,” and every time it turns out “it’s the same as before”—the sentiment peak usually isn’t the same as the price peak, but at least it shows the market still has energy.
So my current take is: in the short term, I’m basically watching the show. My hands are itchy, sure, but I’m not moving. For the medium to long term, the 45% pullback range is indeed the area that long-term capital will likely focus on—that’s been a historical pattern. But whether it can actually rise from here isn’t something I can predict—that’s the market’s business, not mine.
Now I want to ask you: what’s your mindset right now? Are you willing to make a move in this cycle—or like me, itchy hands but too afraid to pull the trigger?
Yesterday I saw ETH still hovering around between the mid-2600s and the high-2700s. To be honest, my hands are a bit itchy. But the old wounds from 2021 tell me that this is not the time for impulse.
On the daily chart, this spot is extremely subtle. Over the past 7 days it’s risen 2.5%—it looks like a breakout might be coming. But in the last 24 hours it’s down 0.3%, like someone standing on the edge of a cliff, testing the ground: one step forward is opportunity, one step back is a bottomless pit. Trading volume has clearly increased at a key level, suggesting both bulls and bears are fighting for real—this isn’t the kind of行情 (market move) that’s just a fake-out.
The 4-hour structure is clearer. I’m watching the support at 2613.82 very closely. Back in 2021, I climbed up from here—and I also fell down from here. I know what to expect: if this level breaks, many leveraged positions will get liquidated. At that point, it won’t be technical analysis anymore—it’ll be a stampede. But if it holds here, then 2794.31 is the next hurdle. If it breaks that level, market sentiment will change, and another wave upward isn’t out of the question.
As for the 1-hour chart—it’s just back-and-forth tug-of-war, and short-term trading is extremely difficult. I saw news that Duelbits was hacked for several million, and there was also that whole thing with Bitget. Hacker incidents like these will likely affect market sentiment in the short term, but honestly, people in the space have long been used to it. It won’t change the bigger trend.
Speaking of the FNG index at 74—greed mode. But the weekly average is only 72, which means this burst of sentiment only kicked in recently, not a sustained optimism. I’ve seen this kind of sentiment many times. Every time I think “this time is different,” and every time it turns out “it’s the same as before”—the sentiment peak usually isn’t the same as the price peak, but at least it shows the market still has energy.
So my current take is: in the short term, I’m basically watching the show. My hands are itchy, sure, but I’m not moving. For the medium to long term, the 45% pullback range is indeed the area that long-term capital will likely focus on—that’s been a historical pattern. But whether it can actually rise from here isn’t something I can predict—that’s the market’s business, not mine.
Now I want to ask you: what’s your mindset right now? Are you willing to make a move in this cycle—or like me, itchy hands but too afraid to pull the trigger?