September 26, 2026.
Coins that are resilient in a bear market often perform strongly in a bull market.
For example, in the 2018 bear market, BNB was more resilient than the overall market, and then delivered an outstanding performance in the 2019 bull market.
For example, in the 2022 bear market, OKB managed to move through the bear cycle, and then showed astonishing performance again in early 2023.
In the 2026 bear market, each coin’s resilience test:
BNB, has not fallen below the 2025 low of $500.
OKB, has not fallen below the 2025 low of $38.
Bitcoin: breaks below the 2025 low of $74,508, and the price returns to the 2024 support.
ETH, continuously breaks below the 2-year support, and returns to the 2023 support.
LTC, continuously breaks below the 5-year support, and returns to the 20-year support.
For coins with weaker fundamentals, past historical support becomes less effective.
Even some low-cap altcoins have fallen to levels lower than they were six years ago.
In this cycle, I have two things I won’t buy.
① In the last bull market, there was no breakout above the 2021 bull-market peak.
② In this bear market, the pullback support is weaker than the overall market (Bitcoin).
Most coins do not meet these two conditions.
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(09/26, 26) Brother Tsai’s daily insight:
Big opportunities are never in the spotlight; they are in places nobody cares about.
Following the crowd can never deliver excess returns. In capital markets, excess returns always belong to a small number of rational investors.
Assets that the masses are bullish on have already had their upside valuation fully priced in.
Investment profits come from time, not the number of trades. The reason most investors lose money is simply that they lack patience.
Stay away from overpriced bubble assets.
No matter how high-quality the asset is and how compelling the logic may be. You still need to control downside risk and cannot endlessly chase highs and buy without restraint.
You can’t control your returns, but you must learn to control your losses.