【You’ve seen this playbook back in 2017—only the cover has changed】
When those “100x coin” rallies topped in 2017, what did the candlesticks look like? First, the price grinds at the bottom until nobody’s watching. Then, suddenly, it surges on heavy volume—so much that the gains make you question reality. Next, it goes sideways for a few days. And just when you can’t hold back and jump in, it starts distributing.
FIL’s current move is basically a re-run of that same script.
From the daily chart, this wave of FIL started around $ 0.7 and is now at $ 1.05. The increase is already over 48%. Don’t get excited by the number—it should make you alert. A 50% rise in a month, without any real catalyst, is a dead-cat bounce, not a trend reversal.
The 4H structure tells an even clearer story. The $ 0.95-$ 1.0 range is the prior high-volume accumulation zone. The current price has already moved out of that zone, but trading volume hasn’t caught up. What does that mean? It means whoever drove this move doesn’t plan to hold long-term—they just lit the fuse and left.
On the 1H chart it’s even more obvious: the $ 1.08-$ 1.12 area has a large amount of trapped positions stacked there, and the bears are watching closely. If the bulls want to push higher, they need real money to “free up” those shares—not slogans can push it up.
On sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index is 71, and the market’s greed is clearly rising. But there’s a problem—does FIL’s surge have anything to do with its fundamentals? Filecoin’s actual storage utilization hasn’t fundamentally changed at all. Meanwhile, the staking mechanism is actually increasing sell pressure. So why is it rising? Mainly because BTC is stable and the overall market sentiment is recovering—oversold coins are getting rotated and pumped for a round.
Who’s buying FIL? In plain terms, there are two types: first, veteran “old weeds” who’ve been stuck for a long time and just want out; second, short-term traders who see the gains and chase in out of FOMO. The first group exits as soon as they break even. The second group cuts losses and leaves too. None of this money is truly solid.
My view: first, we should see whether FIL can push through $ 1.12. If it can’t, then it likely needs to pull back and consolidate within $ 0.95-$ 1.0. The only thing that can truly break this structure would be real, substantial storage orders landing on the Filecoin side. Otherwise, this is just sentiment-driven trading.
Watch the show if you want—but don’t get too immersed.
What’s your mindset right now? Have you gotten your FIL back to break-even? Are you willing to chase this move?
When those “100x coin” rallies topped in 2017, what did the candlesticks look like? First, the price grinds at the bottom until nobody’s watching. Then, suddenly, it surges on heavy volume—so much that the gains make you question reality. Next, it goes sideways for a few days. And just when you can’t hold back and jump in, it starts distributing.
FIL’s current move is basically a re-run of that same script.
From the daily chart, this wave of FIL started around $ 0.7 and is now at $ 1.05. The increase is already over 48%. Don’t get excited by the number—it should make you alert. A 50% rise in a month, without any real catalyst, is a dead-cat bounce, not a trend reversal.
The 4H structure tells an even clearer story. The $ 0.95-$ 1.0 range is the prior high-volume accumulation zone. The current price has already moved out of that zone, but trading volume hasn’t caught up. What does that mean? It means whoever drove this move doesn’t plan to hold long-term—they just lit the fuse and left.
On the 1H chart it’s even more obvious: the $ 1.08-$ 1.12 area has a large amount of trapped positions stacked there, and the bears are watching closely. If the bulls want to push higher, they need real money to “free up” those shares—not slogans can push it up.
On sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index is 71, and the market’s greed is clearly rising. But there’s a problem—does FIL’s surge have anything to do with its fundamentals? Filecoin’s actual storage utilization hasn’t fundamentally changed at all. Meanwhile, the staking mechanism is actually increasing sell pressure. So why is it rising? Mainly because BTC is stable and the overall market sentiment is recovering—oversold coins are getting rotated and pumped for a round.
Who’s buying FIL? In plain terms, there are two types: first, veteran “old weeds” who’ve been stuck for a long time and just want out; second, short-term traders who see the gains and chase in out of FOMO. The first group exits as soon as they break even. The second group cuts losses and leaves too. None of this money is truly solid.
My view: first, we should see whether FIL can push through $ 1.12. If it can’t, then it likely needs to pull back and consolidate within $ 0.95-$ 1.0. The only thing that can truly break this structure would be real, substantial storage orders landing on the Filecoin side. Otherwise, this is just sentiment-driven trading.
Watch the show if you want—but don’t get too immersed.
What’s your mindset right now? Have you gotten your FIL back to break-even? Are you willing to chase this move?