The US market just opened, and $BTC already fell below 85k—honestly, this drop isn’t unjustified.
The just-released US PMI data was insanely strong. Rate-cut expectations were immediately crushed, and the market began pricing in possible hikes within the year. Williams even personally went on the record to be hawkish, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury surged to the highest level since 2007—so risk assets can hardly do well. The Nasdaq and the crypto market got hit together, hand in hand.
Another variable is oil prices. The drama out of Hormuz isn’t over yet. Iran’s foreign minister said, "If the US meets the conditions, the strait will reopen within seven days," and oil prices promptly fell. But WTI had only just jumped 5% in a single day, while Brent is still holding above 106 dollars. With headline-driven developments like this in the Middle East, both bulls and bears can find ammunition—what’s certain is volatility.
My take: under the double squeeze of tightening macro conditions and geopolitical chaos, don’t rush to bottom-fish. Getting caught catching a falling knife below 85k is a lesson the market teaches everyone before each bull cycle. Wait until the PMI heat cools and yields stabilize, then look for right-side signals—not too late.
Position sizing matters more than opinions. Staying alive matters more than being right.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #比特币 #加密货币 #geopolitics
The just-released US PMI data was insanely strong. Rate-cut expectations were immediately crushed, and the market began pricing in possible hikes within the year. Williams even personally went on the record to be hawkish, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury surged to the highest level since 2007—so risk assets can hardly do well. The Nasdaq and the crypto market got hit together, hand in hand.
Another variable is oil prices. The drama out of Hormuz isn’t over yet. Iran’s foreign minister said, "If the US meets the conditions, the strait will reopen within seven days," and oil prices promptly fell. But WTI had only just jumped 5% in a single day, while Brent is still holding above 106 dollars. With headline-driven developments like this in the Middle East, both bulls and bears can find ammunition—what’s certain is volatility.
My take: under the double squeeze of tightening macro conditions and geopolitical chaos, don’t rush to bottom-fish. Getting caught catching a falling knife below 85k is a lesson the market teaches everyone before each bull cycle. Wait until the PMI heat cools and yields stabilize, then look for right-side signals—not too late.
Position sizing matters more than opinions. Staying alive matters more than being right.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #比特币 #加密货币 #geopolitics