The Iranian president and the foreign minister have successively sent de-escalation signals, and this is also the core factor currently driving crude oil prices down. The initiative in the negotiations has been handed to Trump—will Trump take the bait?

Today, Iran’s foreign minister clearly outlined the plan to “restore operations in the Strait within seven days.” Yesterday, it was an “Iranian official” who took the lead in releasing negotiation signals. Today, Iran’s foreign minister has spelled out the negotiation plan—going a step further than yesterday.

Meanwhile, the Iranian president, at home, has stated that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons and is willing to accept nuclear supervision. Combined with the foreign minister’s stance, Iran has already made certain concessions on two key points in the Iran-U.S. disputes, bringing near-term expectations for U.S.-Iran relations into a more optimistic range.

However, risks still remain.

a. The question is whether the U.S. can accept Iran’s seven-day plan to restore operations in the Strait, especially since Iran continues to assert its control over the Strait. Can Trump accept that? This is a major challenge.

b. Regarding the president’s comments about Iran not pursuing nuclear weapons: although the president represents the current Iranian administration, it cannot 100% reflect the highest will of Iran’s political leadership. This is also a risk point.

Next, it will depend on the ability of the mysterious Eastern power to broker the deal. Can the leading power in the East help push things along and get the U.S. to accept the plan? Can Pakistan persuade Iran’s supreme leader to give up nuclear ambitions? These are all unseen games of negotiation! #美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%