Dogecoin (DOGE) has risen about 15% over the past week, once again drawing investors’ attention. With large holders, nicknamed “whales” in the derivatives market, moving into leveraged long positions in large numbers, analysts **Trader Tardigrade**’s proposed “$3” target price has become a point of contention in the market.
Key takeaways
Between September 22 and 24, it is reported that a new approximately $9 million long position in Dogecoin was opened on Hyperliquid.
Spot Dogecoin ETFs recorded the strongest weekly net inflows since January, with Grayscale’s products standing out in particular.
If Dogecoin reaches $3, the market capitalization would swell to more than $500 billion—around 30 times the current level.
Dogecoin whales, ‘long bets’ in the derivatives market
According to derivatives data, from September 22 to 24, **Hyperliquid** opened new Dogecoin long positions totaling about $9 million. Of those, five positions had already entered a state of unrealized gains, according to the figures.¹
Dogecoin’s spot price is trading around the $0.095 level as of Friday, holding about 15% higher than a week ago.² The weekly uptrend has not been broken even amid a volatile Thursday session. Driven by a sharp surge in U.S. Treasury yields, Dogecoin dropped about 7% early that day, falling to the low 9-cent range—its biggest decline among major coins.³
Spot ETF fund flows also helped fuel the short-term rally. According to data provider **SoSoValue**, over the week that began on September 21, spot Dogecoin ETFs saw net inflows of roughly $2.08 million, recording the strongest weekly inflow since January of this year. In particular, the Grayscale (Grayscale) Dogecoin ETF absorbed $2.68 million, achieving the largest weekly net inflow since its launch in November 2025.
However, the surge in inflows cooled off sharply after September 23. **Bitwise** is keeping its plan to liquidate its own Dogecoin ETF, and trading of the product is scheduled to end on October 14.⁴
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Trader Tardigrade’s ‘$3’ scenario
Trader Tardigrade claims that a so-called ‘double bottom’ pattern is forming on Dogecoin’s weekly chart. This pattern, which appears in the shape of the letter ‘W’, is typically interpreted as a signal of a trend reversal. According to his explanation, if the price breaks through and holds above the $0.46 level indicated by the neckline, the technical target would be as high as $3.
However, his benchmark has been adjusted several times in the past as well. In August, he cited a neckline of $0.40 and a target price of $5.⁵
Skeptics are cool, saying ‘the math doesn’t add up.’ Approximately 172 billion Dogecoins are currently in circulation. If the price reaches $3, the market capitalization would soar to well over $500 billion. That would be about 30 times the current market cap, and critics argue the valuation gap versus top-cap assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum is far too large. $3 is also roughly four times the all-time high of $0.7376 Dogecoin recorded on May 8, 2021.
‘The raw side of sentiment’ shown by the September market
The September market for Dogecoin showed just how sharply investor sentiment can swing. On September 10, when Bitwise announced the liquidation of its Dogecoin ETF, Dogecoin’s price fell to around $0.084.⁶
Just ten days later, on September 21, a full-scale short-covering rally took place. With the ‘short squeeze’ spreading across the market, the short-selling camp unwound large positions, and Dogecoin’s price surged about 14% in a single day, recovering to $0.10.⁷ Since then, in the current week, it has been giving back some of those gains and undergoing another round of correction.
From a short-term momentum perspective, the whales’ derivative ‘long bets’ and ETF inflows are clearly a positive. However, as to whether the figure of $3 is a realistic target, market opinion is sharply divided given the supply structure, the burden of market capitalization, and the gap versus past highs.
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