10-year U.S. Treasury yields climb above 5.1%, and what risk assets feel first is often not “news,” but pricing pressure.
BlockBeats reports that on September 23, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by about 15 basis points that day, briefly reaching 5.13%—the highest level since 2007. On the same day, the market’s pricing for another 25-basis-point rate hike in October rose to around 70%, and the probability of an additional hike in December also exceeded 50%. Changes like these first affect the valuations of high-volatility assets and risk/leveraging sentiment. Mainstream crypto assets such as BTC and ETH are usually also pulled into the same risk-pricing chain.
What’s even more worth watching isn’t just the “5.1%” figure, but whether it is followed by further strength in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and U.S. stock volatility. If these variables move higher in sync, any rebound is more like what you’d see from market absorption; if the bond market continues to swing sharply, discussions about subsequent rate hikes will be harder to cool off.
Which are you paying closer attention to: the continued rise in Treasury yields, or U.S. stock volatility playing catch-up?
Figure 1: 5.1% Treasuries suppress risk assets · Key information
Image source: https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/63790
BlockBeats reports that on September 23, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose by about 15 basis points that day, briefly reaching 5.13%—the highest level since 2007. On the same day, the market’s pricing for another 25-basis-point rate hike in October rose to around 70%, and the probability of an additional hike in December also exceeded 50%. Changes like these first affect the valuations of high-volatility assets and risk/leveraging sentiment. Mainstream crypto assets such as BTC and ETH are usually also pulled into the same risk-pricing chain.
What’s even more worth watching isn’t just the “5.1%” figure, but whether it is followed by further strength in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and U.S. stock volatility. If these variables move higher in sync, any rebound is more like what you’d see from market absorption; if the bond market continues to swing sharply, discussions about subsequent rate hikes will be harder to cool off.
Which are you paying closer attention to: the continued rise in Treasury yields, or U.S. stock volatility playing catch-up?
Figure 1: 5.1% Treasuries suppress risk assets · Key information
Image source: https://www.theblockbeats.info/news/63790
