MASSIVE ALERT! Fed playbook mirrors June 1999 — and we ALL know how that ended! 10-year hit 6.75%, market BROKE in March 2000! This is NOT a drill!
Warsh just threw out the neutral rate concept! He's laser-focused on nominal GDP — jumped from 5% to 6.6%! No more forward guidance on rate path! This is a PARADIGM SHIFT!
10-year RIPPED from 4% to 5.2%! Credit spreads? FLAT! Market shrugging off $95 oil AND 5% yields like it's NOTHING! You know what that tells me?! POLICY IS STILL TOO LOOSE! Fed has WAY more hiking to do!
Wall Street's favorite inflation gauge has been BROKEN this entire cycle! If you're not repositioning NOW, you're behind the curve!
This is 1999 all over again! Same setup, same complacency, same ending coming! The tape is SCREAMING at us! Credit markets haven't cracked YET — but when they do, it's GAME OVER!
Watch your duration exposure! Rates are going HIGHER! This isn't your 2% Fed Funds world anymore! BOOYAH!
Warsh just threw out the neutral rate concept! He's laser-focused on nominal GDP — jumped from 5% to 6.6%! No more forward guidance on rate path! This is a PARADIGM SHIFT!
10-year RIPPED from 4% to 5.2%! Credit spreads? FLAT! Market shrugging off $95 oil AND 5% yields like it's NOTHING! You know what that tells me?! POLICY IS STILL TOO LOOSE! Fed has WAY more hiking to do!
Wall Street's favorite inflation gauge has been BROKEN this entire cycle! If you're not repositioning NOW, you're behind the curve!
This is 1999 all over again! Same setup, same complacency, same ending coming! The tape is SCREAMING at us! Credit markets haven't cracked YET — but when they do, it's GAME OVER!
Watch your duration exposure! Rates are going HIGHER! This isn't your 2% Fed Funds world anymore! BOOYAH!
