To be honest, after the abnormal move, the biggest fear is disagreement. As for $BTC , the current chart is exactly stuck in a position that makes long positions feel uncomfortable. The rebound strength is getting weaker and weaker each time—when price bumps upward, it feels more like a probe than a real attempt to break through. I’ve seen this kind of structure many times: the higher it goes, the more the volume shrinks, which shows that the willingness to chase price is fading, not building up. I watched the chart all day. On the four-hour timeframe, each time the price retraces upward to the vicinity of the start of the previous down move, it gets pushed back down. The upper wicks are getting longer one after another. This isn’t a coincidence—it’s sell-side orders actively resting on the book. More importantly, during the rebound, the成交量 doesn’t expand in sync; instead, it contracts. A rebound without volume—plainly speaking—is handing positions to the shorts.
The moving-average system has also started to flatten and disperse downward. The short-term MAs are pressing down on price as it moves lower. For the bulls to flip it back upward, they first need to clear that hurdle, but the momentum simply isn’t there. Looking at the overall structure: the previous high hasn’t been effectively broken, while the lows are gradually making lower moves—this is a typical pressure/holding-down pattern. In terms of market sentiment, people keep calling for a reversal every time it bounces, but the feedback the chart gives is honest: it spikes up and then falls back, meaning the overhead trapped supply and short-term profit-taking are using the rebound to distribute. In this situation, taking longs doesn’t offer a favorable risk-reward. I’m more inclined to treat the rebound as part of a corrective move. As long as price can’t hold above the key resistance zone, pullbacks are highly likely. Ethereum’s pace is similar: it stalls when it rebounds into the prior period’s dense volume area, and it’s highly correlated with BTC.
Both of the two mainstream products weakening at the same time means this isn’t an isolated case—it’s the entire market’s short-term capital contracting. In such an environment, trading with the trend is far more comfortable than going against it. Directionally, I keep the high-short idea unchanged, focusing on the continuation of the decline after the rebound meets resistance. If we do trade, it should be considered only after clear signals that the rebound is running out—not while the market is still falling, trying to catch the bottom. Until the chart gives evidence of a reversal, don’t rush to pick a side for longs.
Widen your view of the mountains and seas, and observe the market’s subtle moves.
Travel with Uncle Xiong, and witness the market’s gains and losses.
#BTC
Click below to trade 👇
The moving-average system has also started to flatten and disperse downward. The short-term MAs are pressing down on price as it moves lower. For the bulls to flip it back upward, they first need to clear that hurdle, but the momentum simply isn’t there. Looking at the overall structure: the previous high hasn’t been effectively broken, while the lows are gradually making lower moves—this is a typical pressure/holding-down pattern. In terms of market sentiment, people keep calling for a reversal every time it bounces, but the feedback the chart gives is honest: it spikes up and then falls back, meaning the overhead trapped supply and short-term profit-taking are using the rebound to distribute. In this situation, taking longs doesn’t offer a favorable risk-reward. I’m more inclined to treat the rebound as part of a corrective move. As long as price can’t hold above the key resistance zone, pullbacks are highly likely. Ethereum’s pace is similar: it stalls when it rebounds into the prior period’s dense volume area, and it’s highly correlated with BTC.
Both of the two mainstream products weakening at the same time means this isn’t an isolated case—it’s the entire market’s short-term capital contracting. In such an environment, trading with the trend is far more comfortable than going against it. Directionally, I keep the high-short idea unchanged, focusing on the continuation of the decline after the rebound meets resistance. If we do trade, it should be considered only after clear signals that the rebound is running out—not while the market is still falling, trying to catch the bottom. Until the chart gives evidence of a reversal, don’t rush to pick a side for longs.
Widen your view of the mountains and seas, and observe the market’s subtle moves.
Travel with Uncle Xiong, and witness the market’s gains and losses.
#BTC
Click below to trade 👇