Crude Oil Precisely Escapes the Top, Reverses to Buy the Bottom in Gold: A Replay of One Opposite Trade
On 9.23, I went long on crude oil. After closing at the high, I flipped and went long on gold. Let me briefly talk about the logic at the time.
Why go long on crude oil on 9.23?
First, the information backdrop. That night, the “golden ten” news kept popping up: the U.S. Secretary of State said talks with Iran were “positive but did not break through,” then turned around to accuse Iran of violating the memorandum and attacking neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Iranian media was also arguing about contacts by the foreign minister that lacked approval. This kind of “talks that won’t stick and can flip at any moment” situation is exactly what the market fears—if anything goes wrong in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil will directly price in geopolitical risk.
Second, the technical side. WTI had just pulled back from the previous high, landing right at my psychological support level—so I went long directly.
Why did I close the long?
It had risen too much, seemingly being driven and yanked around entirely by the news. Also, the price action’s uptrend wasn’t very clean. My profit had already reached the target I expected, so I didn’t get greedy. I decisively took profit and locked it in.
The logic for flipping to go long on gold:
Simple—oil and gold have recently shown a clear inverse move. If I predict crude oil will pull back, the inflation logic that pressures gold will weaken. At the same time, gold had just crashed into the key area around 4249, with an obvious bottoming signal—so I went long. After that, the gold price smoothly rebounded to above 4300.
A bit of takeaway:
In trades like this, being right on the information is only step one. The hardest part is controlling greed—finding the right entry points and taking profits when you have something. #原油 #黄金
On 9.23, I went long on crude oil. After closing at the high, I flipped and went long on gold. Let me briefly talk about the logic at the time.
Why go long on crude oil on 9.23?
First, the information backdrop. That night, the “golden ten” news kept popping up: the U.S. Secretary of State said talks with Iran were “positive but did not break through,” then turned around to accuse Iran of violating the memorandum and attacking neighboring countries. Meanwhile, Iranian media was also arguing about contacts by the foreign minister that lacked approval. This kind of “talks that won’t stick and can flip at any moment” situation is exactly what the market fears—if anything goes wrong in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil will directly price in geopolitical risk.
Second, the technical side. WTI had just pulled back from the previous high, landing right at my psychological support level—so I went long directly.
Why did I close the long?
It had risen too much, seemingly being driven and yanked around entirely by the news. Also, the price action’s uptrend wasn’t very clean. My profit had already reached the target I expected, so I didn’t get greedy. I decisively took profit and locked it in.
The logic for flipping to go long on gold:
Simple—oil and gold have recently shown a clear inverse move. If I predict crude oil will pull back, the inflation logic that pressures gold will weaken. At the same time, gold had just crashed into the key area around 4249, with an obvious bottoming signal—so I went long. After that, the gold price smoothly rebounded to above 4300.
A bit of takeaway:
In trades like this, being right on the information is only step one. The hardest part is controlling greed—finding the right entry points and taking profits when you have something. #原油 #黄金
