Right at the open of the US market, you have to say something that hits hard: $BTC has fallen below 85,000.
The trigger was the just-released US PMI—too strong. The market has pushed up bets that the Fed will add another rate hike within the year. Williams was hawkish straight away: inflation faces major challenges, and another hike before year-end is reasonable. Even more brutal, the 10-year US Treasury yield kept making fresh highs since 2007, and the 30-year yield also touched the highest since 2004. In this environment, the crypto market is getting “slow-bleed” cuts.
Ironically, initial jobless claims were only 197,000—so employment hasn’t cooled down at all. The better the data → the closer the rate hike → the uglier the coin price. This script is something old hands have already grown tired of.
Over in the Middle East, there are signs of some easing: Iran’s foreign minister made a remark, and if the US meets the conditions, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days—oil prices responded by falling. But yesterday Brent still closed above $106. The risk premium hasn’t really evaporated. This round—$BTC —has tighter linkage with gold than with the Nasdaq, suggesting the market is trading it as a sort of quasi-safe-haven asset.
My thinking is simple: in a high-interest-rate environment, don’t go catching flying knives. Keep your hands off alts for now—$ETH ’s liquidity is also being drained by the bond market. Once rate-hike expectations are fully priced in, then it’s not too late to talk about bottom-fishing.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #美债收益率 #比特币 #行情分析
The trigger was the just-released US PMI—too strong. The market has pushed up bets that the Fed will add another rate hike within the year. Williams was hawkish straight away: inflation faces major challenges, and another hike before year-end is reasonable. Even more brutal, the 10-year US Treasury yield kept making fresh highs since 2007, and the 30-year yield also touched the highest since 2004. In this environment, the crypto market is getting “slow-bleed” cuts.
Ironically, initial jobless claims were only 197,000—so employment hasn’t cooled down at all. The better the data → the closer the rate hike → the uglier the coin price. This script is something old hands have already grown tired of.
Over in the Middle East, there are signs of some easing: Iran’s foreign minister made a remark, and if the US meets the conditions, the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within 7 days—oil prices responded by falling. But yesterday Brent still closed above $106. The risk premium hasn’t really evaporated. This round—$BTC —has tighter linkage with gold than with the Nasdaq, suggesting the market is trading it as a sort of quasi-safe-haven asset.
My thinking is simple: in a high-interest-rate environment, don’t go catching flying knives. Keep your hands off alts for now—$ETH ’s liquidity is also being drained by the bond market. Once rate-hike expectations are fully priced in, then it’s not too late to talk about bottom-fishing.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #美联储 #美债收益率 #比特币 #行情分析