Tonight’s US evening session, I’ll watch two things only—everything else is noise.
First, $BTC . It spent the whole day hovering around 84,000. Today Deribit has $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring. With the quarterly expiry, volatility isn’t likely to be small. Near the biggest pain point, that’s where longs and shorts are fighting for control. Before the expiry, don’t go all-in to bet on direction—this is exactly the kind of day the market makers love to harvest.
Next, macro. Finally, I can breathe a little easier. The US and Iran are negotiating a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices dropped straight from 106 dollars to around 99. The 10-year US Treasury yield also pulled back from its highest level since 2007. But don’t get too excited yet—Williams is still sounding hawkish. He says another rate hike before year-end is reasonable. Whether the bond market buys that or not depends on tonight’s data.
My take is simple: with geopolitical tensions cooling plus options expiry, the short term is likely wide-range consolidation. It’s more reliable to trim into resistance on rebounds than to chase longs. What this market is missing right now isn’t a story—it’s confidence.
Personal view, NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC期权到期 #美联储 #中东局势 #加密货币
First, $BTC . It spent the whole day hovering around 84,000. Today Deribit has $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring. With the quarterly expiry, volatility isn’t likely to be small. Near the biggest pain point, that’s where longs and shorts are fighting for control. Before the expiry, don’t go all-in to bet on direction—this is exactly the kind of day the market makers love to harvest.
Next, macro. Finally, I can breathe a little easier. The US and Iran are negotiating a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices dropped straight from 106 dollars to around 99. The 10-year US Treasury yield also pulled back from its highest level since 2007. But don’t get too excited yet—Williams is still sounding hawkish. He says another rate hike before year-end is reasonable. Whether the bond market buys that or not depends on tonight’s data.
My take is simple: with geopolitical tensions cooling plus options expiry, the short term is likely wide-range consolidation. It’s more reliable to trim into resistance on rebounds than to chase longs. What this market is missing right now isn’t a story—it’s confidence.
Personal view, NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC期权到期 #美联储 #中东局势 #加密货币