The European market just opened, and today’s market looks like it could be interesting.
$BTC has been holding steady around the 84,000 mark. It’s mainly because U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back from multi-decade highs, so everyone can finally breathe a little. However, today Deribit has $14 billion worth of BTC options expiring. Before Friday’s settlement, bulls and bears are definitely going to spar. It’s hard to expect a calm, peaceful move from this level.
Macro pressure hasn’t really been resolved. Fed member Williams is still hawkish, saying it’s reasonable to add another rate hike by the end of the year; meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has reached the highest level since 2007. With interest rates this high, every rebound feels like walking a tightrope—I personally doubt its sustainability.
There may be some improvement in the Middle East. Iran has proposed a 7-day ceasefire plan, talks are ongoing about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices have retreated from elevated levels. A cooling geopolitical situation is arguably a positive for $BTC , but whether an agreement can actually be implemented—I’m not too sure about believing the first-round news.
There’s also a chain-related bit of drama: Kelp DAO has filed a lawsuit against LayerZero, and the accounting for the stolen rsETH bridge funds will need to be hashed out in court. If you’re a holder of $ZRO , keep an eye on how cross-chain security responsibilities are divided—this case could set a precedent.
My view: 84,000 is the short-term pivot between bulls and bears. If it holds, look for repair/recovery; if it breaks below, don’t stubbornly hold on. On the options expiry date, don’t chase positions recklessly.
NFA, DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #期权到期 #美债 #geopolitics
$BTC has been holding steady around the 84,000 mark. It’s mainly because U.S. Treasury yields have pulled back from multi-decade highs, so everyone can finally breathe a little. However, today Deribit has $14 billion worth of BTC options expiring. Before Friday’s settlement, bulls and bears are definitely going to spar. It’s hard to expect a calm, peaceful move from this level.
Macro pressure hasn’t really been resolved. Fed member Williams is still hawkish, saying it’s reasonable to add another rate hike by the end of the year; meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has reached the highest level since 2007. With interest rates this high, every rebound feels like walking a tightrope—I personally doubt its sustainability.
There may be some improvement in the Middle East. Iran has proposed a 7-day ceasefire plan, talks are ongoing about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices have retreated from elevated levels. A cooling geopolitical situation is arguably a positive for $BTC , but whether an agreement can actually be implemented—I’m not too sure about believing the first-round news.
There’s also a chain-related bit of drama: Kelp DAO has filed a lawsuit against LayerZero, and the accounting for the stolen rsETH bridge funds will need to be hashed out in court. If you’re a holder of $ZRO , keep an eye on how cross-chain security responsibilities are divided—this case could set a precedent.
My view: 84,000 is the short-term pivot between bulls and bears. If it holds, look for repair/recovery; if it breaks below, don’t stubbornly hold on. On the options expiry date, don’t chase positions recklessly.
NFA, DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #期权到期 #美债 #geopolitics