Bitcoin steadied around $84,300, flat over 24 hours, as the bond selloff that pressured risk assets all week finally paused — the 10-year Treasury yield slipped two basis points to 5.17% after jumping more than 20 basis points in two sessions. With roughly $14 billion in options expiring on Deribit today, the quiet at the index level masked violent rotation underneath: QNT surged 39% and ONDO 27%.

The Macro Squeeze Loosened on Three Fronts at Once

Bonds found a floor in Asia, with the 10-year easing to 5.17% from fresh multi-decade highs. Brent crude fell 1% to about $105 on reports — unconfirmed — that Washington and Tehran are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which would unwind a key inflation risk. And the yen gained as much as 0.6% to 158 per dollar, its best day in over two weeks, after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said President Trump shares Japan's concerns about yen weakness and pledged coordination with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — whose remark that "I have asymmetric information. I am the house now" revived intervention threats following the summer's joint yen-buying. The yen had weakened about 3.5% against the dollar since September 8, and renewed intervention risk matters for crypto via carry-trade unwind channels.

Capital Rotated Into Utility Tokens, Not Memecoins

While Bitcoin hovered between $84,000 and $85,000, QNT led the top 100 with a 39% jump to nearly $100, ONDO rose 27% to about $0.54, and LINK gained 11%; ALGO, AERO and CC each added 8%–9%. Notably, no memecoins cracked the top 10 performers — a signal that the altcoin rotation flagged by Glassnode earlier this week is favoring projects with established use cases over pure speculation. Elsewhere in risk sentiment, the FT reported Goldman Sachs earned about $200 million in fees this year from Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused fund Situational Awareness, whose mid-July leveraged unwind is a reminder of how crowded the AI trade — recently rebounding — became.

FxPro Says Even a Drop to $70,000 Would Not Break the Uptrend

FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich reads the pullback as a stall rather than a reversal: Bitcoin failed to complete a Fibonacci extension to 161.8% of the impulse that began in mid-August in a single move, but the unfinished structure of the uptrend suggests a temporary pause. He noted Bitcoin lost over 50% from its peak in 2021 before making new highs, arguing a decline to $70,000 — painful for short-term speculators — would not undermine the bullish outlook. That scenario would mean roughly a 17% drop from $84,300 (derived) and a break below the entire $77,430–$83,000 support stack.

Today's $14 Billion Expiry Is the Session's Pivot

Bitcoin heads into the year's largest Deribit expiry below $85,000 — the strike carrying one of the largest call blocks. Post-expiry, the pin around $85,000 dissolves, freeing price to test either $87,300 resistance or the $83,000 zone floor. With yields pausing, oil retreating and the October 2 jobs report next on the calendar, the direction of that break will show whether this week's macro squeeze was the story or the interruption.