From 4.9 billion to 7.5 billion—today’s bullish news for Ethena ($ENA ) needs to land on the coin; we still need to close this middle stretch.
On September 25, Ethena announced a partnership with Binance. USDe can be used to back tokenized stocks as collateral and use stock perpetuals to hedge the basis. For USDe, this is real expansion: in the 19:00 Beijing-time 1-hour candlestick that came out, the volume was the highest in the past 72 hours, surging from 0.229 to 0.2439.
But for ENA holders to actually receive money, it depends on the fee switch passed in early September. Its threshold is an average USDe supply over 14 days reaching $7.5 billion; it’s currently around $4.9 billion. The partnership first needs to grow USDe by more than 50% before buybacks can begin. What people buy into today is the expectation for this switch—not the cash flow itself.
Also on the calendar: on October 5, the remaining investor allocation will be released all at once. A third-party estimate puts it at about 14% of circulating supply—just 10 days away.
So I won’t treat this bullish candle as a signal to start running. Chasing at the current price of 0.238 isn’t worth it. Before the news, the position was at 0.2285; falling back below that level means the good news has already been sold.
On the other hand, if before October 5 it can hold steady above 0.2439, that means the market is willing to consume the unlock early—then my outlook would have been overly conservative.
#ENA #Ethena
On September 25, Ethena announced a partnership with Binance. USDe can be used to back tokenized stocks as collateral and use stock perpetuals to hedge the basis. For USDe, this is real expansion: in the 19:00 Beijing-time 1-hour candlestick that came out, the volume was the highest in the past 72 hours, surging from 0.229 to 0.2439.
But for ENA holders to actually receive money, it depends on the fee switch passed in early September. Its threshold is an average USDe supply over 14 days reaching $7.5 billion; it’s currently around $4.9 billion. The partnership first needs to grow USDe by more than 50% before buybacks can begin. What people buy into today is the expectation for this switch—not the cash flow itself.
Also on the calendar: on October 5, the remaining investor allocation will be released all at once. A third-party estimate puts it at about 14% of circulating supply—just 10 days away.
So I won’t treat this bullish candle as a signal to start running. Chasing at the current price of 0.238 isn’t worth it. Before the news, the position was at 0.2285; falling back below that level means the good news has already been sold.
On the other hand, if before October 5 it can hold steady above 0.2439, that means the market is willing to consume the unlock early—then my outlook would have been overly conservative.
#ENA #Ethena
