Post
慢就是快Mike
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$BTC Macro alarm sounded! The probability of a rate hike in October soars to 75%—is Bitcoin’s “golden pit” coming?
The China-U.S. summit hasn’t even ended, yet risk markets are already taking a hit—don’t just watch fluctuations in crude oil. The real danger is that the rate-hike gloom hasn’t really lifted! 💣
🔸 Macro data hits hard:
The probability of a rate hike in October jumps straight to 75.3%, and the market has started pricing it in with real money. After Brent crude fell below 100 and rebounded, yields on U.S. Treasuries for the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors all hit the highest levels since 2007. Oil is down, but bond yields are spiking—this suggests that internal inflation in the U.S. is the tough nut to crack, sticking far more than expected!
🔸 The Fed’s hawkish hammer:
Fed governors have been swinging the hawk’s bat one after another. Long-end rates can’t be suppressed, and the Treasury Department has no immediate options. Can risk assets try to keep themselves out of trouble? Not likely. In the short term, the market will most likely face further pressure and consolidation shakeouts.
The China-U.S. summit hasn’t even ended, yet risk markets are already taking a hit—don’t just watch fluctuations in crude oil. The real danger is that the rate-hike gloom hasn’t really lifted! 💣
🔸 Macro data hits hard:
The probability of a rate hike in October jumps straight to 75.3%, and the market has started pricing it in with real money. After Brent crude fell below 100 and rebounded, yields on U.S. Treasuries for the 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year tenors all hit the highest levels since 2007. Oil is down, but bond yields are spiking—this suggests that internal inflation in the U.S. is the tough nut to crack, sticking far more than expected!
🔸 The Fed’s hawkish hammer:
Fed governors have been swinging the hawk’s bat one after another. Long-end rates can’t be suppressed, and the Treasury Department has no immediate options. Can risk assets try to keep themselves out of trouble? Not likely. In the short term, the market will most likely face further pressure and consolidation shakeouts.
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