【BTC fifth bull market signal appears! Has the market really changed this time? 🔥】
[💬 比特币牛市行情进群跟上](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/MwYFhLo4)
Bitcoin has recently shown a very rare on-chain signal.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost found that the average cost basis of short-term BTC holders has risen back above that of long-term active holders.
This signal has appeared only 5 times in Bitcoin’s history—occurring in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The analyst believes this could mean that BTC’s market momentum may be changing. 📈
What’s even more important is that institutional capital is also moving in.
From September 21 to 23, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive trading days, with a total scale of about $2.06 billion. Of this, the single-day inflow on September 21 was close to $1 billion.
Simply put, the market is seeing two changes right now:
On one side, the on-chain positioning structure is starting to improve; on the other, traditional capital is flowing back into BTC via ETFs.
But here’s the question—when the fifth signal appears, does it necessarily mean BTC will keep rising next?
Not so fast.
Because in history there have only been four similar cases, the sample size is extremely limited. On-chain indicators reflect changes in market structure more than they can independently determine price direction.
📌 So what’s truly worth watching next is whether this cost-basis signal can keep holding up, and whether BTC ETF flows can continue to remain net positive.
If the on-chain structure improves and institutional capital returns at the same time—and both can sustain—then the funding base behind this BTC rally is what’s really worth paying attention to.
#比特币现货ETF净流入1.91亿美元
[💬 比特币牛市行情进群跟上](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/MwYFhLo4)
Bitcoin has recently shown a very rare on-chain signal.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost found that the average cost basis of short-term BTC holders has risen back above that of long-term active holders.
This signal has appeared only 5 times in Bitcoin’s history—occurring in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2023. The analyst believes this could mean that BTC’s market momentum may be changing. 📈
What’s even more important is that institutional capital is also moving in.
From September 21 to 23, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive trading days, with a total scale of about $2.06 billion. Of this, the single-day inflow on September 21 was close to $1 billion.
Simply put, the market is seeing two changes right now:
On one side, the on-chain positioning structure is starting to improve; on the other, traditional capital is flowing back into BTC via ETFs.
But here’s the question—when the fifth signal appears, does it necessarily mean BTC will keep rising next?
Not so fast.
Because in history there have only been four similar cases, the sample size is extremely limited. On-chain indicators reflect changes in market structure more than they can independently determine price direction.
📌 So what’s truly worth watching next is whether this cost-basis signal can keep holding up, and whether BTC ETF flows can continue to remain net positive.
If the on-chain structure improves and institutional capital returns at the same time—and both can sustain—then the funding base behind this BTC rally is what’s really worth paying attention to.
#比特币现货ETF净流入1.91亿美元
