🔥 I misjudged it😭 Massive unlock, but today <0-9>$XPL </0-9> didn’t get cut—it actually surged hard?😭
In trading, I’m the little brother, but XPL today really opened my eyes. I’ve made progress.
This morning I posted that today <0-9>$XPL </0-9> would unlock a massive amount, taking up more than 63% of the circulating supply. But it didn’t drop—instead it exploded up 26%. I wanted to short. See Figure 1.
Then I truly went in with a plan and shorted in batches, using a 2x low leverage. See Figure 2.
Now the funding rate has turned negative, but the price is still staying stubbornly high. I’m a bit bald on the top.
I went and carefully observed and researched (using the all-powerful grok), and found that:
1️⃣ Spot volume today is only around the 5 million level. It’s up about 30% in the last 24h, but there hasn’t been a volume explosion. Meanwhile, the futures trading volume is about 8x that of spot—this doesn’t match my expectations.
2️⃣ Also, according to Binance app’s “smart money” for futures, XPL’s OI (open interest—the total unsettled long/short positions) is as high as about 50 million. See Figure 3.
3️⃣ In addition, I checked: although today there’s a huge unlock of 1.76 billion coins, they’re all unlocked to the project team and investors—not to retail users. This is… the project and investors are basically the “whales” now. Even if they aren’t perfectly aligned, if you were them, would you dump the price? I wouldn’t. After all, this isn’t an air project.
4️⃣ There isn’t an exact unlock timing—some say one time, some say another. But that doesn’t matter. Any information that needed to be digested has already been digested.
So what does this mean? It means that although it’s spiking hard, nobody is coming in with spot to bottom-buy. It’s all long vs short fighting inside the futures market. I accidentally became someone who “boards first and researches later.” Luckily, my leverage is only 2x.
Like those earlier situations with <0-9>$GENIUS </0-9>—a sudden large-scale launchpad airdrop that would dump and crash the market, and that’s what makes the sell-off happen.
Bad call.
I don’t think it can break the previous high of 0.2, but the process will be tough. I’ll top up some margin to prevent unexpected wick spikes and liquidation blowups, and I’ll gradually reduce my position.
One step at a time, slowly learn and summarize, slowly get to having money😭
Feel free to watch and lurk.
In trading, I’m the little brother, but XPL today really opened my eyes. I’ve made progress.
This morning I posted that today <0-9>$XPL </0-9> would unlock a massive amount, taking up more than 63% of the circulating supply. But it didn’t drop—instead it exploded up 26%. I wanted to short. See Figure 1.
Then I truly went in with a plan and shorted in batches, using a 2x low leverage. See Figure 2.
Now the funding rate has turned negative, but the price is still staying stubbornly high. I’m a bit bald on the top.
I went and carefully observed and researched (using the all-powerful grok), and found that:
1️⃣ Spot volume today is only around the 5 million level. It’s up about 30% in the last 24h, but there hasn’t been a volume explosion. Meanwhile, the futures trading volume is about 8x that of spot—this doesn’t match my expectations.
2️⃣ Also, according to Binance app’s “smart money” for futures, XPL’s OI (open interest—the total unsettled long/short positions) is as high as about 50 million. See Figure 3.
3️⃣ In addition, I checked: although today there’s a huge unlock of 1.76 billion coins, they’re all unlocked to the project team and investors—not to retail users. This is… the project and investors are basically the “whales” now. Even if they aren’t perfectly aligned, if you were them, would you dump the price? I wouldn’t. After all, this isn’t an air project.
4️⃣ There isn’t an exact unlock timing—some say one time, some say another. But that doesn’t matter. Any information that needed to be digested has already been digested.
So what does this mean? It means that although it’s spiking hard, nobody is coming in with spot to bottom-buy. It’s all long vs short fighting inside the futures market. I accidentally became someone who “boards first and researches later.” Luckily, my leverage is only 2x.
Like those earlier situations with <0-9>$GENIUS </0-9>—a sudden large-scale launchpad airdrop that would dump and crash the market, and that’s what makes the sell-off happen.
Bad call.
I don’t think it can break the previous high of 0.2, but the process will be tough. I’ll top up some margin to prevent unexpected wick spikes and liquidation blowups, and I’ll gradually reduce my position.
One step at a time, slowly learn and summarize, slowly get to having money😭
Feel free to watch and lurk.
