The most interesting part of this BTC move is that the number of bearish signals has been increasing, but the price has not seen a corresponding level of crash. In September, the Federal Reserve raised rates again by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, and among 18 officials, 16 are expected to hike at least once more this year. The high-rate environment has not ended. At the same time, Bitget also had a security incident in which around $351.6 million in assets were transferred abnormally, and the exchange temporarily suspended withdrawals. Bitget currently states that its cold wallet security and users’ asset security are intact, and that the related losses are covered by a user protection fund exceeding $464 million. Logically, rate hikes plus an exchange security incident should both deal a blow to market confidence, yet BTC has still shown resilience. The core reasons may be three. First, rate hikes have already been priced in by the market in advance, so the impact after the move is actually limited. Second, institutional capital is becoming the new source of support: over the past five trading days, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $2.65 billion, and this amount is enough to offset some of the macro selling pressure. Third, during the rapid BTC rally earlier, a large amount of short positions were accumulated, and short covering further amplified the rise. But precisely because of this, we cannot simply interpret BTC’s resilience as the bull market having fully restarted. The prior uptrend came from both ETF inflows and short covering; meanwhile, high interest rates, bond yields, and regulatory uncertainty still remain. The most critical factor ahead is still the $85,000 level. If BTC can regain and hold above $85,000, it would indicate that the market is starting to digest bearish factors such as rate hikes and the security incident, and that the ability of capital to absorb dips remains strong. If it repeatedly fails to hold above $85,000, then investors should be wary that after the short covering ends, the market may revert to being dominated again by macro logic. In other words, BTC is not without risk right now—it’s entering a phase of “plenty of negatives, but buying pressure is strong” as the two sides contend. What truly determines the direction next is whether ETF inflows can be sustained, rather than focusing only on a single remark from the Fed.