The most valuable news today is the Iranian foreign minister’s remark— the plan has already been put on the U.S. desk, and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen as soon as seven days. $CL heard it and immediately caved, but Saudi Arabia quietly shifted its exports this month from the Red Sea ports to this side of the strait. Large tankers in the Gulf of Oman get transshipped and lined up fast, cargo freight rates are up, and transit time is also being stretched.

On the headlines, things are said to be easing; in actual cargo, conditions are tight. This kind of split narrative, I don’t trust mouths—I only trust ships. JPMorgan added a tough line: if oil prices stay above $100 for the long run, that’s the stagflation script from the 1970s. Big gold players increased long positions to the highest level in the recent period, yet the gold price keeps slipping lower—some people are buying more as it falls.

The knockoff market is even more lively. In the RWA track, $XPL surged nearly 30% in a single day, with open interest hitting a new three-week high. Overnight, ONDO saw on-chain smart money add to its position. NIL, which doubled in a week, today cut 16 percentage points, and ONE—after doubling and a half—fell another 30%. Everyone who caught it is left standing guard.

The issue involving Bitget’s hot wallet was first covered by the protection fund; we’ll talk about the details later. The disagreement between oil and crypto isn’t over yet—this time, shipowners will know the answer before traders do.